Grizzlies Hit Road For Must-Win Game 6.
For the first half of game 5, the Memphis Grizzlies got whatever they wanted on offense. Points in the paint, short, efficient jumpers, anything the Grizzlies wanted to do, they did, with the possible exception of any semblance of good three-point shooting.
Still, the Grizzlies shot the lights out in the first half, but had to hold on for dear life in the second half for a few reasons, the most of which being that they forgot the old cliche, “dance with what brung you.” The Grizzlies had a big lead going to the second half, but completely disregarded how they built the lead as their two first-half monsters (Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol) only got seven combined shot attempts. Granted, they missed all seven, but that’s a quick hook for something that worked so well in the early going.
It may be worth looking at again in game 6, as nothing can be scarier, or more demoralizing, to a home crowd than to see their team get punished on the low block. It works a lot like a good running game in football. You can live with an occasional big play, but when a team can consistently get four or five yards on the ground, it’s tough to stay invested.
The Clippers weren’t known as a great post defensive team entering the series, but have done a good job of keeping the Grizzlies off-balance so far. Guys like Kenyon Martin and Reggie Evans, perennial trouble makers, have made it difficult for the Grizzlies to get their offense going.
That all changed on Sunday, but it will be interesting to see how differently the game will change when the teams get game 6 started.
The Clippers have lived with the official’s whistles all series long, winning the games in which they shot more free throws, and losing the ones they didn’t. That’s not a new stat, or one unique to this series, of course, the winning team shoots more free throws a lot of the time, but the Clippers depended on getting calls in the regular season as well.
The Clippers shot an astonishing 40 free throws to the Grizzlies’ 27 attempts in game 4. The game went to overtime, and the Clippers won by four points. That’s how small the margin for error is in this series.
The Grizzlies are saying all of the right things as they head west, and nobody seems to be too down on themselves, but the fact remains that if the Grizzlies are going to win a road playoff game, it has to happen tonight. They’ve won on the road before (at San Antonio and Oklahoma City last year, no less), and while the Clippers aren’t known for their intimidating home crowds, it’s impossible to deny that the Grizzlies haven’t seemed themselves in their four appearances on the Clippers’ home floor this year.
It’s relevant to mention that two of those games came during the regular season and without Zach Randolph, but the two games in the playoffs have exposed the Grizzlies as a team that was struggling with it’s identity on the road. Game 5 may have changed that, but for now, it’s a great unknown.
If the Grizzlies approach game 6 like they did game 5, they could build another huge lead. If they’re satisfied with taking a bunch of contested jump shots, then that changes things.
The real story of game 6, at least before the game, will be the health of Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. Both were injured in the Clippers’ game 5 loss and are “game-time” decisions tonight. I would be shocked if either actually miss the game, and even more surprised if they don’t play close to their usual minutes as it is a closeout game, and a trip back to Memphis probably sounds as appealing to them as the secret service making another trip to Columbia.
For all intents and purposes, this is the Clippers’ game 7, because the prospect of losing two straight, one at home, and then having to fly back to Memphis and winning a deciding final game can’t be a good one for anyone affiliated with the Clippers. If they actually lost game 7? That would be a borderline disaster for any franchise, and definitely for the star-crossed Clippers.
My Prediction:
Grizzlies: 92
Clippers: 89
I just can’t see the Grizzlies bowing out to a finesse team like the Clippers. The Spurs, maybe, the Thunder possibly, but the Clippers? It’s too unlikely to me. I think the Grizzlies finally found their identity in game 5, and that’s the type of style that travels well. Even if the refs keep up their “see no evil, hear no evil” bit, you want Gasol and Randolph to take 14 shots apiece, it’s just smart basketball, because they’re so high percentage.
I also think it’s possible that Griffin or Paul will be slightly limited in what they’re able to do. They’ll still play, mind you, but maybe not be 100%. A healthy Paul has been the best player for the whole series and Griffin took game 4 over, before he fouled out.
These games have been so close that anything slowing Paul or Griffin could swing a game, and a game late Wednesday night, then a cross-country flight doesn’t sound like a good elixir for anyone’s banged up body.
The Grizzlies will win if they continue to get Gasol and Randolph looks in and around the paint. Period. They did it the other night and got a big win. They can do it again. I think they will.