2012 NBA Finals: NBA Finals Eve.

Last night was NBA Finals Eve. That’s where every good little boy and girl gathers around and wears their NBA-themed pajamas to bed, with dreams of the Larry O’ Brien Trophy dancing in their heads.

That would make this Finals morning. While not as exciting as Christmas morning, there was definitely some electricity in the air when I awoke at 6:57 a.m. Central Standard time.

The Finals start tonight. In about two weeks we will have our newest NBA champion. We’ve already explained what this means for the two biggest stars in the series, but what’s at stake for the franchises?

Last year, Dirk Nowitzki and the Dallas Mavericks caught fire for two months and won their first championship in franchise history. They may have been new to the winner’s circle, but they knew how to celebrate when they reached it. Nowitzki and the Mavericks were a fun story, simply because that first championship is always the best one. You fight so hard, you make so many sacrifices, you lay it all on the line and when you reach the top, you can’t imagine ever feeling better than you do at that moment. It’s rewarding to become the best at something, to become part of that larger fraternity of winners. It means everything.

In 2010, the Los Angeles Lakers won like their 52nd world championship. Whatever. They were excited, and rightfully so. But they beat the Celtics (who are also no stranger to the Finals) and while they were certainly happy that they won, it seemed like more relief than anything. Winning is assumed with the Lakers and Celtics, even in their present state. The 2012 Boston Celtics wouldn’t have even been allowed to listen to the Finals on the radio when they were got to the all-star break under .500 this season, but they finished strong, made it to game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals and lost to a team that many assumed would roll them in five games. That’s a decent run for a team that everyone had given up on in February, but not for the fans and players. You want to feel like the players are disappointed if you’re a fan, you want them to be upset about coming up short, but even the most ardent Boston supporter should recognize how unlikely this latest Boston run was.

For the Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder, things will likely never be this way again. In fact, you could make the argument that Miami is already in that “title or bust” scenario even though their one championship came in 2006 and the only holdover from that squad is all-world guard Dwyane Wade. The Heat came together overnight in the summer of 2010 and promised “not 1, not 2, not 3….” championships, yet haven’t even delivered one yet, despite two straight Eastern Conference Championships.

I liken the Heat to Soldier Field in Chicago. In 2002, the entire stadium was gutted and now looks completely different inside and out. Despite all of that, it’s still called Soldier Field and the city carries on like it’s the same stadium. In some ways it is, but in some ways it isn’t. The Heat have that championship banner from 2006 and Wade, but that was six years ago and every other relevant player on the roster has been turned over. In 2006, they were underdogs, an up-and-comer but not one that could seriously contend with the Dallas Mavericks, right?

Now the Heat are basketball’s bad boys and if you aren’t invested in the series at all, you’ll probably pull for the Thunder. That’s fair enough, I suppose. I mean, we all want to see Goliath get his comeuppance, right? Many people can relate more to the Thunder ascent to the NBA’s elite than the Heat’s shortcut to contention. Add in LeBron James’ surliness and choke artistry and it’s an easy decision to cheer for Durant, Westbrook and the boys.

Alright, I don’t totally believe that. Is LeBron kind of a weird guy? Sure. Does he do strange things and give you a nervous vibe most of the time? He does. But if you take a step back and look at the big picture, nobody in the league has given you a better chance to win an NBA Championship over the past six years. Don’t believe me? Check this out:

2007- Cleveland lost in the NBA Finals to the San Antonio Spurs. Alright, they got swept, but they were there, only four wins away from the whole thing.

2008- Cleveland lost in the second round to the eventual champion Boston Celtics. LeBron had 45 in a game 7 loss in Boston. If they win that game, we may have a different champion that year and we definitely would have gotten our first LeBron-Kobe Finals match-up.

2009- Cleveland had the best record in the league, but lost in the Eastern Conference Finals to the Orlando Magic. James averaged over 30 points and 10 rebounds in the series.

2010- Lost in the second round to Boston again. Boston would eventually win the East and come within six minutes of winning the whole thing.

2011- Miami lost in the Finals to the Dallas Mavericks.

2012- Eastern Conference Champions. NBA Champions?

Granted, maybe he didn’t play as well as he was capable of in the 2011 NBA Finals or the 2010 series against Boston, but for the most part, the dude delivers the goods.  He’ll never be Michael Jordan, but James will win a championship someday and all of this banter is going to seem pretty foolish.

The Thunder enter the Finals as the favorites and for good reason. For all of the talk we had about the Spurs and how dominant they looked for all of April and May, the Thunder just took four straight from them and in quite the impressive fashion, including rallying back from being down 18 at home in game 6.

Oklahoma City has seen a more gradual improvement than Miami, but their turnaround has been fulfilling nonetheless. Sam Presti quite brilliantly took Kevin Durant #2 in the 2007 NBA Draft, but doesn’t often get a lot of credit for drafting their other core players. Russell Westbrook wasn’t considered to be as good a prospect as his college teammate Kevin Love in the 2008, but Presti drafted him fourth overall and while Love has turned into an All-Star and one of the league’s best young players, you can’t argue that Westbrook was the best pick for the Thunder.

If Westbrook was a slight reach for the Thunder, then James Harden was a huge one. Nobody thought he was as good as Tyreke Evans, Steph Curry, or Ricky Rubio as many had cooled on his potential after a poor showing in the NCAA Tournament. Harden has evolved from out-of-place rookie to valuable bench performer to the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year in just three seasons. He probably should have been an all-star this season and the fact that he wasn’t grows more and more egregious as time goes on.

In fact, I believe that Harden will be the X factor in this entire series with Durant going locked in an epic battle with LeBron James and Westbrook likely tied up with Dwyane Wade. If Harden can get going to the basket and hit some jumpers to stretch the floor, the Thunder will be alright. If Harden has a bad series, I don’t believe that Oklahoma City can score enough to keep up with the Heat, even if the game is played in the 90s.

Sorry for the added pressure there, James.

So what’s going to happen? Will LeBron put the team on his back four times, win his first championship and tell his haters to kiss off? Will Wade be able to be more efficient and get to the free throw line or is he more injured than anyone is letting on? Can the Heat role players make a few plays and outplay Oklahoma City’s strong bench?

For the Thunder, can they continue to hold serve at home? If they win just four more home games, they’ll be hanging a banner on opening night next year. Can Durant and Westbrook continue to play together well? Will Harden continue his tour de force seven more games? As I referenced earlier, he will likely have to.

My Prediction:

Oklahoma City in 7 games.

Here’s the thing: I think that the Heat are the better team, I think James is the best player on the planet and Wade has enough Finals experience to where he won’t be intimidated by being on the big stage. Shane Battier, Udonis Haslem and Mario Chalmers are all playing exceptionally well.

However, if Miami is better, it’s not by much and one of the reasons that they’re better is because they have a reliable post-up option with Chris Bosh where Oklahoma City can settle for too many jump shots sometimes.

That said, Bosh isn’t 100% and probably won’t be at any point in this series. Miami needs him more than Oklahoma City needs Harden, in my opinion. The  Heat are a completely different team without him on the floor as we saw against Indiana and Boston. The Pacers weren’t good enough to take advantage of Miami being down one of their stars because the Heat still had the two best players in the series. Boston would have taken advantage of his absence, but Bosh returned in time and played very well in game 7.

Oklahoma City is more than good enough to take advantage of Bosh being less than his usual self. They could win with him totally healthy and as great as Wade and LeBron are (and they are) can they score 45 points apiece four times in seven games? It seems unlikely.

Going further, I just don’t see Oklahoma City losing a home game. Sure, it could happen, but a lot of things could happen that never did. If the Heat are going to win the series, they need to steal game 1 or 2.

However, I see the Thunder winning a seven game war, Kevin Durant assuming the title of “Best Player Alive” and another long summer of LeBron headlines. If that doesn’t sound appealing to you, I can’t say I blame you, but remember, just a few months ago it didn’t look like we’d be having a season at all this year, so I’ll take an awesome Finals and three months of Heat stories over the alternative any day.

Enjoy the Finals, y’all.