Lionel Hollins: In or Out?

May 15, 2013; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Memphis Grizzlies head coach Lionel Hollins reacts to a call in action against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the second half in game five of the second round of the 2013 NBA Playoffs at Chesapeake Energy Arena. The Grizzlies defeated the Thunder 88-84. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Lionel Hollins’ contract expires this offseason, and the decision to keep or release him is not as clear cut as you might think. Let’s take a look at the arguments for and against bringing back the most successful coach in franchise history.

Argument to Keep Hollins

A coach’s impact is one of the only immeasurable things in basketball. There’s just no way to quantify the number of wins a good coach is responsible for – there are too many mitigating factors. The only numbers we do have are in Hollins’ favor (ironically, as I will explain later). Let’s review his winning percentages from 2009-10 (his first full year) to now:

2009-10: 40-42 (.488)

2010-11: 46-36 (.561) Reached Western Conf. Semis

2011-12: 41-25 (.621)* Reached Western Conf. 1st Round

2012-13: 56-26 (.683) Reached Western Conf. Finals

*Lockout-shortened season

Every year since Hollins took over, the Grizzlies have improved. This isn’t the stock market — you typically don’t unload a coach whose performance is on the upswing. With the Grizzlies so close to their first Finals appearance, the ownership should let Lionel finish what he started.

After all, it was Hollins who helped mold this team. Yes, the front office bought the groceries, but Lionel was the one cooking the meal. A point of pride for him was accomplishing so much with a roster of misfit toys. He managed to reach the Western Conference Finals less than 4 months after losing the team’s leading scorer in Rudy Gay.

His no-nonsense persona and defense-first mentality have rubbed off on the Grizzlies and formed the basis for their success. Hollins has developed talent in ways other coaches could not (namely Randolph, Bayless, and Pondexter). He turned Mike Conley into a star point guard worthy of an SI cover. He is also not afraid to impose his will in crucial moments.

Furthermore, with a front office loaded with brainy, numbers-conscious executives, it’s important to balance the ship with an old school basketball lifer at head coach. Letting the numbers make the coach’s decisions is not a recipe for success.

Memphis struggled for years to find a consistent, successful candidate for the head coaching role. Releasing Hollins now risks falling back into a pattern of chaos and uncertainty. And teams like the Nets, the Knicks, and the Lakers proved just how hard it can be to find NBA-caliber leadership these days. Memphis should count its blessings and pay Hollins.

On the other hand…

Argument To Let Hollins Go

Although concrete evidence is virtually impossible, there’s a strong argument to be made that the Grizzlies’ success is independent of Hollins. He publically objected to the Rudy Gay trade, believing it was a bad move, or at least that it came at a bad time. Despite this, Memphis’ offensive production improved as did the team’s overall success: the Grizz were 27-10 after the trade, good for the 3rd best record in the NBA, losing only once at home. You can certainly attribute some of this success to Lionel Hollins, but how much credit can you give a man who thought it wouldn’t work?

Furthermore, Hollins frustrates fans (and probably his VP of Basketball Operations John Hollinger, father of the PER system) with his dismissal of analytics. Most level-headed observers believe that information from equations and computers should be used to supplement and confirm what you see with your eyes. Some believe the information should supersede a coach’s instinct. Hollins believes analytics is bunk.

“It’s just basketball,” he said angrily when asked about his questionable rotations.

In a radio interview with Sports 56 WHBQ, he railed against the “nerve” of one of his employees who sent him an email with lineup evaluations and recommendations — as if the employee was not only wasting his time, but also disrespecting Hollins’ judgment. Hollins may not understand the place of analytics, but the problem is deeper than that: he doesn’t try to understand. To flatly deny the value of efficiency ratings is close-minded and damaging to the team.

With or without the help of the ratings, Hollins’ rotation choices cost the Grizzlies dearly in key situations. He left ball handlers like Conley and Bayless on the bench down the stretch, gave Darrell Arthur big minutes he didn’t deserve (DA’s +/- in the playoffs was laughable), and let Bayless get shredded trying to guard Tony Parker. He said Tony Allen couldn’t guard Kevin Durant, which was dead wrong. The Conley/Pondexter/Gasol trio was the Grizzlies’ most effective lineup against the Spurs, but saw far too little floor time.

A coach who is more willing to accept helpful input, together with a roster strengthened by perimeter shooters, can push the Grizzlies past their plateau. If the Grizzlies release Hollins, they can promote assistant coach Dave Joerger — the architect of the Grizzlies’ top-ranked defense — to interim head at a fraction of Hollins’ price. It is a savvy move that benefits the ownership’s wallet and the team’s future.

My Prediction

The front office’s decision on Hollins will probably be determined by the offers he receives from other teams. If Brooklyn or LAC offer Hollins a $4m+/year contract, I predict is that the ownership will opt not to match the offer. If Hollins gets no serious offers, I doubt the organization will want to voluntarily undergo a coaching change.

Things to keep in mind:

1) Clippers owner Donald Sterling sat courtside at the Grizzlies – Spurs series opener. Rumors swirled that Sterling, who isn’t seen frequently at L.A. home games, flew out to scout Lionel Hollins in person. Can you imagine the drama of a Memphis-LAC game with Hollins on the other sideline?

2) Big-market teams like Brooklyn and Los Angeles can make more lucrative offers for Hollins (including the appeal of the cities themselves), BUT coaches’ salaries are not capped like player salaries. If the Memphis ownership is willing to bid to retain Hollins, they don’t have to worry about taxes.

3) The Grizzlies’ roster will likely see big changes before the 2013-14 season: they could use more reliable outside shooting, a better backup for Mike Conley, and a stronger starting small forward than Tayshaun Prince (TP was an excellent piece of duct tape this year, but is simply not a big enough threat in the 3 spot to spread the league’s best defenses; the SAS series proved this). The chance to configure a new lineup is a big pull for a new coach, and can work out well for the team.