Player Preview: Vince Carter
The tread is wearing on Vince Carter’s basketball tires, but Vinsanity still has something to contribute to the Memphis Grizzlies’ rotation and culture.
Vince Carter AKA Vinsanity
Vincent Lamar Carter Jr., the once electric shooting guard from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, is entering his 19th season in the NBA and has no plans of retiring. Vince Carter was at one point one of the league’s biggest stars. His high flying dunks catapulted him into stardom. The guy has enough highlight material to the point where a YouTuber was able to make a top 300 dunks video. Just pause for a second and think how ridiculous that is. His all around game earned him several awards. Carter has been an eight time All-Star, was a first team All-Rookie and has been both second and third team All-NBA. He played his first seven years in Toronto, then moved to New Jersey, Orlando, Phoenix and Dallas. Since the start of the 2014 season, he has been a member of the Memphis Grizzlies.
Carter’s career averages are:
| Season | FG% | 3P% | 2P% | eFG% | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Career | .439 | .373 | .462 | .488 | .800 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 18.8 |
(Per Basketball-Reference)
Last season, while playing for an injury plagued Memphis team, Carter averaged:
| Season | FG% | 3P% | 2P% | eFG% | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | .388 | .349 | .425 | .474 | .833 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 6.6 |
His numbers last year are obviously lower for a 39-year-old year old veteran, but are not too alarming. His On/Off Court split looked like this for 2015-2016:
| Team | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Split | eFG% | ORB% | DRB% | TRB% | AST% | STL% | BLK% | TOV% | ORtg | ||
| On Court | .470 | 24.9 | 74.7 | 48.8 | 54.2 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 13.6 | 105.5 | ||
| Off Court | .479 | 25.4 | 75.2 | 49.2 | 56.9 | 9.4 | 8.1 | 14.4 | 105.5 | ||
| On − Off | -.009 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -2.7 | +0.1 | +0.5 | -0.8 | +0.0 |
| Opponent | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Split | eFG% | ORB% | DRB% | TRB% | AST% | STL% | BLK% | TOV% | ORtg |
| On Court | .517 | 25.3 | 75.1 | 51.2 | 60.5 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 17.6 | 108.5 |
| Off Court | .518 | 24.8 | 74.6 | 50.8 | 60.9 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 17.1 | 107.6 |
| On − Off | -.001 | +0.5 | +0.5 | +0.4 | -0.4 | -0.9 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +0.9 |
Memphis was ever so slightly worse when he was on the court and his opponents were better, but it was nearly negligible.
Looking to 2016
So, you might be looking at the above numbers and ask yourself, “So, why should I care that Vince Carter is on the team? He’s over the hill!” Well reader, you are probably right. Don’t expect Carter to do anything amazing. It’s possible that he has a “turn the clock back” game in him, but that would simply be an aberration. FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO (a system that forecasts a player’s future performance) projects that Carter will drop off even more this season. Last season, Carter was a 0.0 on the offensive plus/minus, but is projected to become a negative on offense next season, which will make him negative on both ends of the court.
| THE FINE PRINT | 2014 | ’15 | ’16 | ’17 | ’18 | ’19 | ’20 | ’21 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive +/- | +2.1 | -1.1 | 0.0 | -1.5 | -2.4 | -2.9 | -2.2 | -2.9 | ||
| Defensive +/- | -1.0 | -0.3 | -1.2 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -1.3 | -1.5 | +0.4 | ||
| Total +/- | +1.1 | -1.4 | -1.2 | -2.2 | -3.0 | -4.1 | -3.7 | -2.5 |
(Per the CARMELO for Vince Carter)
However, he can still throw down some dunks which will woo the crowd and still can shoot the ball at a decent enough clip that will help a Memphis team that desperately needs shooting.
Carter may also have to find some new chemistry now that Memphis has re-tooled to make another run. Last year, his best lineup included four players who are no longer with the Grizzlies.
The five-man man combo featuring Carter last year included Matt Barnes, Mario Chalmers, Jeff Green and Ryan Hollins.
| Chalmers/Barnes/Carter/Green/Hollins (Per 100 Possessions) | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FG% | 3P% | FT% | PTS | ORB% | DRB% | TRB% | AST | STL | BLK | ||||
| +.004 | -.231 | +.049 | -11.3 | -8.3 | -8.3 | -1.5 | +1.8 | +1.1 | -1.4 |
Building new chemistry with teammates will be key for Carter during training camp and preseason.
Leadership is Key
Vince Carter may not be the player he once was, but what’s most important is the veteran leadership he will provide to Memphis’ new young players, such as Wade Baldwin IV. I am not going to advocate that Carter should take minutes away from these younger players (the statistics show why that would harm Memphis). They will most likely be more productive and it’s beneficial for the future of Memphis for them to play and learn in preparation for the playoffs. However, Vince Carter is an exemplary teammate and can provide a ton of knowledge he has picked up through his 19-year career. Carter won the Twyman-Stokes Teammate of the Year award.
"The award recognizes the player deemed the best teammate based on selfless play, on- and off-court leadership as a mentor and role model to other NBA players, and commitment and dedication to team.More than 300 NBA players submitted their votes through confidential balloting conducted by the league office."
Earning an award for being an excellent teammate both on and off the court can go a long way. Vince Carter is definitely someone who can teach these new young guns how to handle themselves and how to enjoy a long successful career.
Best/Worst/Most Likely Scenario
Best Case:
Vince Carter has a solid year, where he performs slightly better than last year averaging 8 points per game on 42 percent shooting. He comes off the bench and finds new chemistry with rookie point guard Wade Baldwin IV and help the strong starting 5 for Memphis push to the Western Conference Finals. After Kevin Durant, Steph Curry and the Warriors collectively choke, the Grizzlies are able to get to the NBA Finals where they beat Cleveland (editors note: or the “super team” in New York) in 6. Carter finally gets his ring and retires as a Toronto Raptor.
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Worst Case:
Vince Carter has a huge drop off a la Paul Pierce next year. For whatever inexplicable reason, Coach Fizdale refuses to play his young players, because he doesn’t want to be part of a rebuild. Carter continually gets minutes and is then injured. The rest of the Grizzlies suffer from minor injuries throughout the season and they fail to make the playoffs.
Most Likely:
Vince Carter’s production drops off, but not at a horrendous rate. (Similarly to what FiveThirtyEight’s projections show.) The starting 5 are one of the league’s top units and the bench gets just enough production out of the bench to secure a 4-seed in the West. After a hard fought series, Memphis loses in the second round to Golden State. Carter re-ups for one more season at a veteran minimum.
(What would a Vince Carter article be without a chance to watch this dunk?)