The Memphis Grizzlies and Oklahoma City Thunder cross each other's paths more often than not as up-and-coming teams. Both teams rose around the same time during the 2010s and met in the playoffs on three different occasions, with the Thunder winning two of those three series in 7 games.
Recently, the Grizzlies became the next up team after a second-round playoff appearance during the 2021-22 season. However, their paths weren't linear this time as the Thunder rose to the top of the Western Conference standings during the Grizzlies' down year in 2023-24.
Both teams were at the top of the standings for most of the last season before a late-season slide by the Grizzlies triggered a first-round playoff series between the two teams. The Thunder swept the Grizzlies en route to an NBA championship, therefore increasing the gap between the two teams.
While the Grizzlies acknowledged that gap and have approached this offseason as such, a recent stat shows that the Grizzlies and Thunder have a lot more in common than you think.
The Grizzlies have been overachievers over the last 15 years
The Memphis Grizzlies are overachievers and typically perform better than their preseason projection. Since Ja Morant was drafted in 2019, the Grizzlies have finished above their preseason over/under win total every season except the 2023-24 season. That season was an outlier due to Morant's suspension and injury-shortened season which included the team playing the most players ever in a season (33).
According to Sportico, the Oklahoma City Thunder have been the most overachieving team in the NBA since the 2010 season, with an average of over four wins over their preseason over/under. The Grizzlies ranked fourth on that same list with just under an average of two wins over their preseason over/under in that same timespan.
The Grizzlies were one of only six teams to average over one win over their preseason total in the last 15 years, along with the Thunder, Indiana Pacers, Toronto Raptors, San Antonio Spurs, and Utah Jazz. Considering the Thunder and Pacers were just facing off in the NBA Finals let's you know that Memphis is on the right path, and the expectation is that they will likely overachieve.
They began a revamp of their roster this offseason to prepare their team to compete with the Thunder for the foreseeable future. As successful as their core was in the last couple of seasons, getting swept by Oklahoma City showed several flaws that needed to be addressed. But if history serves as an indicator, expect Memphis to find itself back near the top of the West standings soon.