Gold On The Ceiling: Your Guide To The 2012 NBA Playoffs.
It’s that time again, hoop fans. Sure, March Madness was somewhat interesting, but lacked it’s usual drama and the compressed NBA regular season schedule left us with more than our fair share of big games every night, but the wait is over. It’s playoff time and will be for the next two months. Eight weeks of basketball at it’s highest level, followed by the Olympics where the American men will try to keep the gold medal at home for the second straight time. If you aren’t exciting about all of this, I genuinely feel sorry for you.
With so much intrigue surrounding the playoffs, it would be almost impossible to just focus on a few things. Sure, it’s easy if your favorite team is involved, and even better if they have an actual shot at the championship. But even then, it would be easy to get sidetracked and wonder what the Heat score is or how the Spurs keep chugging along after such a continued run of success.
It’s easy to get attached to these teams and players when they’re part of your life for at least six months of the year and as exciting as the playoffs are, it’s always sad to see the season end.
Without further ado, here are the five biggest story lines from this year’s playoffs:
1.) The Miami Heat:
You can admit it. It’s alright. The Heat are still the most fascinating story in the NBA and it’s not really close. Whether you love or hate the Heat, you’re still watching. Whether you approve of the way the “three kings” joined up on South Beach, you aren’t turning the channel when they’re on.
In a way, Pat Riley is the most famous, celebrated home-wrecker in the NBA. Who else can take credit (or blame) for destroying two other franchises in one fell swoop like Riley can? The Cavs lucked out, won the lottery and drafted Kyrie Irving, but the fact remains that last year, the Cavs were the worst team in the NBA. And what of Toronto? They’ve just begun to rebuild. They may be another two years away from respectability. It’s not like they were world-beaters with Chris Bosh in tow, but they were at least perennial playoff contenders and they haven’t sniffed the postseason in the past two years.
It’s remarkable to me how the Heat are still as big of a news story as they are, almost two years after The Decision. In today’s world of constant media, social networking and things of the like that one team has stayed on the tip of so many people’s tongues. Don’t get me wrong, I’m as guilty as anyone, but I found it interesting that the Philadelphia Eagles were being compared to the Miami Heat at the beginning of the 2011 season, but eventually they even fell off the map, due to a bad start and the obvious ups and downs of an NFL season.
Wondering if Miami can win it all is just as relevant a question as wondering if the Heat can even return to the Finals. Nobody really knows what to expect from the Heat.
On paper, it’s tough to see anyone getting past the Heat’s top-heavy roster four times in seven games, just like it was last year, until Dallas eventually did just that.
I think the Heat definitely win the East again, unless the Bulls have been playing possum with Derrick Rose’s various injuries. If Rose is close to being 100%, then Chicago could very well topple Miami, especially with home-court advantage. Or the Heat could roll through The Windy City in five games again and whip the Thunder in the Finals.
As always, the Heat will leave us guessing, and I can’t speak for you, but I’ll be watching every moment of it.
2.) Is The East Wide Open Or Just Mediocre?:
Obviously the East has two of the very best teams in the entire league, but after that, the talent seemingly drops off of a cliff.
Indiana is a good team and has an excellent record, but are they really as good as that record says that they are? They haven’t received the same amount of buzz that Miami and Chicago have, but are a solid team. Some wonder if they have an extra playoff gear, or if they’re as good as they’re going to be. The upside for the Pacers is that they draw Orlando in the first round and without Dwight Howard, they may be the worst team in the whole playoffs.
Things will escalate a bit for Indy in round two when they play either Miami or New York, and while nobody thinks they have a shot against the Heat, it’s worth mentioning that the Pacers did win the last game against Miami and blew the Heat away in Indianapolis at that.
Then you have Boston, who’s been playing very well as of late. Problem with their draw is that they will probably get Chicago in the second round rather than Miami. Of all the teams in the playoffs, the Celtics wouldn’t mind seeing Miami in the playoffs because the Heat are one of the few teams that Boston would have a size advantage over. The Celtics would likely dominate the glass and get a lot of second-chance points and neutralize, at least to a point, Miami’s big three.
That won’t be the case against Chicago. The Bulls have four quality big men and not only wear teams down on defense, but crash the boards and live on second and third opportunities. Boston doesn’t fear any team, but you have to think that if they had their pick, they’d rather see the Heat, while the Pacers would likely see the Bulls after last year’s tight opening series.
Alas, we have what we have in the east, meaning that…
3.) The Road To The Finals Goes Through Chicago, Probably:
All signs point to another Bulls/Heat Eastern Conference Finals. I have no issue with it, as I think those are the two best teams out east and have all season and the only thing that would make me reconsider this would be some sort of injury or if Derrick Rose can’t get back to 100%. Even if he does, the Bulls probably still have enough to make it to the conference finals.
The two rounds before the conference finals are pretty bland, but it doesn’t take a huge hoops fan to get fired up for another Bulls-Heat clash. Every game will likely be a low-scoring defensive struggle, and it will come down to who can execute late in games. Every game last year was decided in the fourth quarter and there’s no reason to think that won’t be the case again this year.
4.) Are The Spurs For Real?:
Until last year’s playoffs against Memphis, the Spurs had never lost a first-round series in the Tim Duncan/Gregg Popovich era. That’s not a misprint.
A lot of that has to do with the Spurs usually having a top 4 seed, having home-court and having Duncan, consistently one of the 10 best players in the game and Popovich, probably the best coach in the NBA today on their team during that run. Apparently talent and coaching is important.
So what happened last year? First of all, the Spurs weren’t quite as good as their final record indicated. San Antonio played the regular season last year in overdrive and they won 61 games and home-court advantage through the western conference playoffs. The Spurs simply played harder than most teams they matched up with last year, and other teams couldn’t match that intensity, or just didn’t care to. It would be fair to say that their 61 wins would have been 53 or 54 wins in a normal season. That’s still very good, by the way, however, they would have entered the playoffs as a 2 or 3 seed and without the hype. Their inflated regular season stats definitely contributed to the disappointment that comes with the first opening round loss by Duncan and Popovich.
Second, Memphis was the worst possible match up for the Spurs last year. The Spurs have been in transition for the past three years from a defensive-minded squad to a more wide-open offensive team that leans on it’s offense to outscore other teams.
This goes back to 2010 when the Spurs looked poised to unseat the Lakers and contend for their fifth world championship in the Duncan era. They ran into the Phoenix Suns, a team that they traditionally owned in the playoffs. However, this time, the Spurs couldn’t get stops against a team that they generally always got stops against. Phoenix swept the Spurs right out of the playoffs in the second round.
Last year, the Spurs didn’t have a definite identity, even after 82 games. They weren’t the efficient defensive unit that they used to be, but they weren’t a top-shelf scoring machine either. Also, Memphis’ bigs, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol completely dominated Duncan, who looked old almost overnight. The Spurs also found out that DeJuan Blair and Tiago Splitter weren’t ready for prime time as the Grizzlies scored in the post at will.
The Grizzlies could have won all six games that they played in that series, but the fact remains that the Spurs matched up better with every, single other western playoff team than they did the Grizzlies. If Memphis had lept to the 7 seed and the Spurs drew the Hornets, maybe everything goes differently. The Spurs almost definitely beat the Hornets and advance to the second round to play the Thunder, who have good bigs, but nobody that can dominate the glass and post like Memphis. The Spurs probably win that series as well. If Memphis was waiting in the conference finals after beating the Lakers and Mavericks, then it’s a good bet that the Spurs would have lost that series as well. But does anyone believe Memphis could have won two straight playoff series against the tested Mavericks and Lakers? Sure, it’s possible, but I wouldn’t have bet on it.
Sure, it’s a big what if, but if Memphis had finished just one spot better last season, we may very well be talking about the Spurs defending their championship from last year.
Oh yeah, the Spurs are for real. If I were betting money, I’d put it all on the Spurs right now.
5.) How Much Bad Blood Will There Be In A Potential Thunder-Lakers Second Round Series?:
Good Lord, so much blood. If you’re confused as to why, may I refer you here?
More importantly, these are the only two teams that can actually beat the Spurs, in my estimation. I like Memphis’ chances against anyone, but the Spurs have taken particular joy in crushing the Grizzlies four times this regular season and only one of those games was close, and that was in Memphis.
The status of James Harden will be the most interesting thing. If he can be back for round two and back to his best, the Thunder seem to match up well with the Lakers, with their four big men able to swarm Bynum and Pau Gasol, although the Lakers have to be happy with how Jordan Hill played against Oklahoma City in that game in Los Angeles last Sunday.
Harden’s physical health will be most important, but how will he react to being on the same floor as a maniac like Ron Artest? I’m not sure too many people would take a vicious elbow like that and be overly eager to take another one. However, Harden is integral for the Thunder. If he plays and plays well, the Thunder are tough to beat. If he’s hurt and not 100%, OKC doesn’t have enough scoring to compete with the league’s elite teams. But, you know, no pressure James.
So how is it all going to shake out in this crazy year? Will home court or young legs carry the day? I’m inclined to go each way. I’m picking a Spurs-Heat NBA Finals, with the Spurs taking down banner #5 in seven games.
I’m all-in on the Spurs unless something terrible happens to their big three. I’m less sold on Miami and will switch this pick to Chicago if I suspect that Derrick Rose is close to being himself, but he hasn’t been healthy in three months. If it hasn’t happened yet, it probably won’t happen, which leaves the door wide open for the Heat to win the conference again, but you have to suspect that the Spurs would secretly be cheering for Miami in that scenario for two reasons:
First, the Spurs would get home-court advantage in the Finals against the Heat. Second, the Heat wouldn’t be able to be take advantage of the Spurs’ thin front line as the Heat are just as, if not more thin, than the Spurs. Also, Popovich has made a career of stifling perimeter studs like Lebron and Dwyane Wade.
Like everything else in the NBA today, all conversations end up revolving around the Miami Heat.