Grizzlies/Clippers, Round 1.
The Memphis Grizzlies will enjoy home-court advantage for the first time in franchise history at 8:30 local time when they take the court against the Los Angeles Clippers.
The Grizzlies and Clippers have known they were going to be playing each other in round 1 for at least a month, but for most of that time, it looked like the setting would be the Staples Center in Los Angeles, but the Clippers lost their last two games of the season and the Grizzlies passed them on the season’s last day.
As a result, games 1, 2, 5 and 7 will all be played in Memphis, where the Grizzlies were 25-7 this season, including a win against the Clippers just a few weeks ago.
Chris Paul is the man who makes the Clippers go and routinely raises his game when the stakes are highest. He’s only won one playoff series in his career, with the Hornets in 2008, but just last year, he showed the Lakers what a force he can be on the big stage as he won two games against the Lakers with his second-best teammate, David West, on the shelf with an injury.
The Hornets had no reason to hang in that series and Paul kept them above water. A lack of talent won’t be an issue this season as he’s teamed up with fellow all-star Blake Griffin to form one of the best young teams in the league.
The upside for the Grizzlies is that the Clippers aren’t a great road team and the home-court advantage may be the difference.
If the game comes down to who’s bench plays better, the Grizzlies should like their chances as the Clippers already short reserve list was shortened even more when valuable veteran Chauncey Billups was lost for the season, but still have Mo Williams and Kenyon Martin to give the starters a break.
The Grizzlies should also have an advantage in Lionel Hollins. Hollins makes some interesting decisions regarding his rotations and attitude toward young players, but it would be difficult to argue with the results. He gets his guys to buy in and everyone has seemed to be on the same page, despite some rumors to the contrary that have surfaced recently.
Vinny Del Negro does many questionable things as head coach and though he led both of his Chicago Bulls teams to the playoffs, he was fired after back-to-back first-round exits.
The Clippers scooped him up immediately and has still delivered an uneven performance. This is his fourth season as a head coach and has just finished the best regular season of his career.
The match up to watch will be Blake Griffin against the Memphis front line and whoever they decide to stick on him defensively. Griffin is pretty quick going to the basket, but lacks a consistent jump shot. Griffin’s sub-par free-throw shooting will also likely play a role late in games.
The other match up will be when Tony Allen switches to Paul. I would be surprised if that’s his full-time assignment, as Paul gets a lot of calls and the Grizzlies will want to keep Allen out of any foul trouble. I would be surprised if Allen doesn’t take that over down the stretch, though.
My Prediction:
Grizzlies win series 4-3.
These two teams are about as even as they can be in my opinion. Their records ended up similar, and while the Clippers did win the season series 2-1, it bears mentioning that the Clippers’ two wins came while Zach Randolph was injured.
At the end of the day, home court will decide each game and that this very well could be the best first-round series in the 2012 playoffs. You won’t want to miss a second of it.