Memphis Grizzlies’ Off-Season Central: The Big Decision.

One of the best Grizzlies games I ever had the pleasure of attending was a random early-January game at FedEx Forum against the Utah Jazz.

It was a back-and-forth battle the whole game that ended with O.J. Mayo hitting a jump shot that put the Grizzlies up two with little time left on the clock.

That was the first year of the Zach Randolph era in Memphis and while it was the only season that ended with the Grizzlies missing the playoffs so far, there was just something about that team that I’ve never been able to put my finger on.

Maybe it was the fact that it was the first competitive team since Pau Gasol left town (they finished 40-42 and were in the playoff hunt until their short bench and Hasheem Thabeet conspired to do them in) or maybe it was the abundance of likeable players, as opposed to the Antoine Walker and Marko Jaric situation of previous seasons.

One of the likeable stars was Mayo who has worn many different hats in his time in Memphis: former #3 overall pick, future franchise player, disappointment, terrible bourre player, malcontent, trade chip and eventually settling as one of the NBA’s very best bench scorers.  A less consistent James Harden, if you will.

In fact, his evolution as a bench scorer was one of the reasons that the Grizzlies have enjoyed a renaissance over the past two years and are viewed by some as one of the NBA’s rising young teams.

Unfortunately, it looks like Mayo may be on his way out of town this off-season as he will become a restricted free agent after the Finals.  A restricted free agent is a little different from an unrestricted free agent in that the RFA’s current team is free to match any offer that another team may give him, as long as that team extends the RFA a “Qualifying Offer,” which is a mere formality for the most part.  Any player of value is always extended that offer as quickly as possible and Mayo definitely has value.

So why wouldn’t he return? As we touched on the other day in the introduction to this space, the new luxury tax will discourage even the most profitable teams from spending over that line, and it would be suicide for a team like the Grizzlies.

With the Memphis payroll inching ever so close to that threshold, the Grizzlies need to save some money for their lead bench scorer role or trim payroll in other areas by moving one of their other highly-paid players for someone who makes less.  I have no doubt that all options will be pursued, but all we know right now is O.J. is an RFA and there are a few options for the Grizzlies:

1.) Extend Mayo his Qualifying Offer:

There’s really no reason to assume that this won’t get done.  Mayo’s QO offer will be a shade over $7 million, up from his cap figure of $5.5 million and change last year.  That’s a lot of money for a “bench player,” but Mayo plays as many minutes as any starter on the Grizzlies, and is their youngest “core” player.  $7 million a year is a fair price for a player like Mayo, but with Marc Gasol, Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph and Mike Conley already having extensions, it seems like O.J. was drafted one year too late and maybe the Grizzlies would spend their money in other areas, but there’s no need in playing the “what-if” game now.

The QO will ensure that the Grizzlies can match any offer extended to Mayo if they choose to, as they will retain his “Bird rights.”

It also functions as a de facto one-year contract if Mayo signs the offer sheet, which is just as standard as it being offered.  Basically, if he doesn’t get any offers that he likes from other teams or never signs a contact with another team, then the QO is basically a one-year extension, with a raise for the 2012/2013 season.

The downside to that, if you want to call it that, is that he would be an unrestricted free agent after next season, free to sign wherever he chooses to sign.

This rarely happens, as most guys get some sort of contract offer from somebody, but happened with a guy like Mayo after the 2007-08 season when the Chicago Bulls were unable to secure a long-term extension with Ben Gordon.  Gordon accepted the QO, never signed an offer sheet with any other teams, with his eyes on the 2009 off-season.  Gordon later signed a lucrative extension with the Detroit Pistons.

Gordon never signed an offer sheet because he didn’t want the Bulls to match it and have him under contract for the life of the deal, so he decided to play with the threat of some sort of injury hanging over his season, just to get out of Chicago.

I don’t think that Mayo and Memphis have any such ill feelings, however.

2.) Don’t extend the Qualifying Offer, wish Mayo best of luck elsewhere:

Not likely to happen, but if it did, Mayo would become unrestricted and the Grizzlies would lose his Bird rights, meaning they could only sign him using one of the exceptions in the new CBA, which wouldn’t be for much money.

It would free up Mayo’s cap hold and the Grizzlies would regain that $7 million figure which would be more helpful if they weren’t over the salary cap right now.

Again, no real use in not extending the QO.

3.) Memphis could negotiate a sign-and-trade:

This is as underrated dynamic for O.J. Mayo’s value.

Let’s say that a team loves Juice and wants to sign him, but retain some flexibility.  In fact, I think that the New Jersey Nets would be relatively perfect for Mayo.  Maybe the Nets want to offer him a 4 year, $42 million deal, which is fair money.

The Nets plan on having cap space, but maybe they’d want to retain some flexibility moving forward, so the Grizzlies could ask for something in exchange for Mayo’s rights, like New Jersey shooting guard, Anthony Morrow.

The Grizzlies were discussing a Mayo-for-Morrow swap around the trade deadline, but decided against it because they wanted to make a run with their core in place.  Now that Mayo is due for a raise, I can think of worst situations than getting one of the best three-point shooters in the league in exchange for a guy who’s leaving anyway.

4.) The Grizzlies say “Screw it,” match any offer and figure the rest out over the course of the rest of the off-season:

Seems unlikely, even less likely than #2, but it is technically on the table.

Let’s say that Michael Heisley thinks the Grizzlies have a championship team right now.  Maybe he thinks that the Grizzlies were the best team last year, but Rudy Gay’s injury ruined everything (not totally far-fetched, by the way) and that this year, nobody had the opportunity to come together and get used to playing with each other before the playoffs and after a normal, non-lockout affected off-season, with actual training camps before next season, the Grizzlies will be back in the hunt again.

Heisley could match that theoretical Nets offer of 4 years, $42 million, trim some fat around the roster, stay under the cap and not enjoy the type of depth that the Grizzlies had last season.  Remember, they practically gave Sam Young to Philadelphia before the deadline just to stay under the tax and he was a crucial part of the team the previous two years.  This team had a lot of guys who could step in and play.

How did I end up at 1,300 words? It wasn’t my intention, I swear, but this is the crucial question of the off-season.  If Heisley lets his competitive side win out and give this core one last chance to make a run at it, there will be some happy fans, sure.  But would it be wise? Is there any fan reading this right now that thinks that the 2012 version of the Memphis Grizzlies that was better than the 2011 version?

Personally, I’m conflicted.  Yes, the 2011 edition won a round against a heavily favored opponent and almost took down Oklahoma City, but the Spurs were right in the Grizzlies’ wheelhouse and the Thunder were just as inexperienced as the Grizzlies were last year.

This year, the Grizzlies rarely had their ideal line up together and when they finally did, it was time for the playoffs and Randolph wasn’t 100% yet.  Can you justify giving it another shot? Or does this team need some fresh blood after having pretty much the same cast of characters over the past three years?

You can’t fault Heisley one way or the other.  If he lets O.J. go, it’s probably because he got more money than he’s worth elsewhere and deserves a chance to find out if he can start and produce with the greats in the league.  If he brings O.J. back, he truly believes in this team that he’s built, and that’s a good thing.

Just don’t be surprised when Juice or Rudy are traded if the Grizzlies don’t win it all next year.

I’m just glad I’m not the one making the decision.