Grizzlies Off-Season Central: Amnesty Zach Randolph?
Relax. I’m not here to advocate such a move.
However, if you took a step back and looked at the big picture, it makes sense from a long-term standpoint.
Marc Gasol is 27 years old, in the prime of his career. Rudy Gay is 25 years old, also in his prime. Mike Conley Jr. is 24 years old, younger by a month than I am.
Zach will turn 31 in July, with no guarantee of ever returning to the level that he reached in the 2011 playoffs. That was an exceptionally high level, and few have ever dominated for a month like he did, granted, but most power forwards don’t start having career years at age 31 or later. Well, except for Tim Duncan who’s somehow still churning out awesome seasons as the Spurs seem to be the team to beat in 2012.
So what if Heisley decided to go nuclear and pay Zach for the last three years of his deal and send him on his way?
As expensive as such a move would be, it would free up some much needed cap space and the Grizzlies could then afford to re-sign O.J. Mayo , giving them another young piece to build around, while also allowing the Grizzlies to re-sign the duo of Darrell Arthur and Marreese Speights to absorb Z-bo’s minutes.
This would free the Grizzlies up to take whatever player they like best in the draft, rather than worrying about drafting a need. Back-up point guard would likely still be at the top of the list, but they could always address that in free agency with a lot of big names available.
However, Michael Heisley is a successful businessman and didn’t get to be that way by just flushing tens of millions of dollars down the toilet, and that’s basically what this deal would be. Under the new CBA, Zach is probably overpaid by a little bit and by more than that if he never returns to his 2009-2011 form. However, there’s no guarantee that he won’t reach that level after an off-season of rest and an actual training camp next year. If he even gets close to the guy that killed the Spurs and almost slayed the Thunder in 2011, he’s worth every cent, because he makes the Grizzlies an actual championship contender.
That brings us to my next point: as good as Gasol has been in his Memphis tenure and as much as some people overvalue Rudy Gay, does anybody believe that they could be the two best players on a championship-caliber team?
For Gasol, the question may invariably come back to whether he’s so effective because of Randolph. In all fairness, he was pretty good with Zach out of the line-up from January to March 2012, and maybe even better in some ways. The Grizzlies played some pretty good ball in that time and that was mostly thanks to Gasol’s tireless work ethic.
Gay is another story. As I’m sure most of you Grizzlies fans know by now, Gay and Randolph’s game never really meshed particularly well after Gay returned from his injury that ended his 2011 season prematurely. Just as he returned to the court, Randolph was leaving it during a January 1 game in Chicago. When Randolph returned, it was as a co-sixth man off the bench, and the team actually jumped a level, winning road games in Miami and Oklahoma City, who are only two of the last four teams standing right now.
But when the playoffs came around, Randolph was returned to the starting line-up and the Memphis offense as a whole struggled during that frustrating 7 game loss to the Clippers. Some members of the media in Memphis questioned the wisdom behind messing with a good thing and restoring Zach to the starting line-up, but he still played the lion’s share of minutes whether he started or came off the bench, they just came at different times.
Further, he almost always played the big crunch-time minutes in the playoffs. Well, except for that one time.
So, why not trade him? Some teams are aching for a star and Randolph has a high profile. Even ESPN guys seem to like his game, and that means EVERYTHING.
Well, as good as Zach may be, his contract is definitely a hindrance and would be tough to get equal value in exchange for him.
A few examples that I came up with:
1.) Grizzlies trade Zach Randolph to Chicago Bulls for Carlos Boozer:
Both contracts run the same length of time, with Randolph actually making more money this season and the next, but why would the Grizzlies ever do this? Boozer is a shell of his former self and Zach was still pretty good last year, despite the injuries.
Boozer’s game would open the floor up for Gasol to work the low post as he has become more of a jump shooter at this point in his career.
I think the Bulls grab this deal in a heartbeat as they would add an equally mediocre defender, but an actual world-class offensive player to a team that desperately needs scoring. They would also flank Randolph with Joakim Noah, one of the best defensive big men in the league.
Anytime the team that you’re offering a trade to would say “yes” almost immediately, without thinking, it’s probably not a good deal. Forget this one.
2.) Grizzlies trade Zach Randolph to Los Angeles Lakers for Pau Gasol:
The Gasol brothers reunited in the Bluff City!!! After a summer that they will spend in London trying to bring the gold medal to Spain, the Gasols don the Beale Street Blue uniforms to chase the world championship for the Grizzlies.
It’s unlikely however, because while Pau is still a great player, he makes even more money than Randolph and had as much of an impact on the Lakers season as Zach did on the Grizzlies season and looked really bad at times against the Thunder. Oklahoma City definitely has an advantage in the front court, especially defensively, but a great player can make plays no matter what kind of defense he’s faced with.
Despite the money issue, Pau didn’t leave many fans behind him in Memphis when he left. He always played hard and led the Grizzlies to their first three playoff appearances, but his relationship with the front office and the fans became strained over his last two years and ended up demanding a trade. Pau is still the franchise’s best player (for now), but his time has come and gone.
3.) Grizzlies trade Zach Randolph to Miami Heat for Chris Bosh:
Kind of a pipe dream as the Heat are realizing that they probably need Chris Bosh, but doesn’t Randolph fit the Heat’s needs a little more?
Even on his best day, Bosh is more of a jump shooter than post player, and while he’s quite good at it, the Heat have a couple guys, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, that shoot it pretty well too.
If the Heat had someone like Randolph that can score down low and control the boards, then they’d become a little more interesting, in my opinion.
However, if the Heat try to move Bosh, it will probably be for two pieces and I imagine that they’d value Bosh much higher than Randolph.
Understand, I think the two players are comparable, and Bosh is probably a little better, but it wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility to look at this trade, especially if the Heat don’t win a championship this year.
Which brings us to the big one. This one makes sense for both sides and should be executed immediately.
4.) Grizzlies trade Zach Randolph and Rudy Gay to Atlanta Hawks for Al Horford and Josh Smith:
The Hawks core has gone as far as it can go, and it’s time for a shake-up. If they’re ever going to seriously contend, they need to strike while Joe Johnson can still contribute because in about two more years, his contract will be the albatross to end all other albatrosses.
The Hawks get their shake-up, at the cost of their best player (Horford) but get a proven low-post scorer that they can pair with Zaza Pachulia or whoever else they may sign down the line to play center. As good as Horford is, he’s played out of position at center his entire career in Atlanta, and that was based purely on need. Now, he’s a great player and even made an all-star team, so he’s not doing too poorly, but he is a power forward and would flourish playing that position.
The Hawks also get younger at the wing, moving from Smith to Gay. Atlanta likes Smith, but he’s still prone to some knucklehead moments at the worst possible time. Not that Gay isn’t, but he would be a nice compliment to Jeff Teague and Joe Johnson and shoots a much better percentage from 3 point range than Smith, but he does lack Smith’s ability on defense.
Atlanta would also acquire Gay, who’s signed for the next three years, as opposed to Smith, who can bolt in two. It’s a small difference, but for a franchise that has had trouble attracting star players, that may appeal to them.
For a lot of reasons, Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo are the biggest dominoes to fall for the Grizzlies this off-season. If they can get two, cheaper pieces for Rudy Gay, then that’s a deal that they may likely make. Even if it’s just a cheaper small forward, they may be able to afford to keep Mayo in town, helping their bench in a major way.
However, if that fails, and the Grizzlies decide that they need to move some salary, then Randolph seems like the next likely candidate. It’s doubtful that they would ever actually amnesty him, but if they got decent value in a trade? That’s a different story.