Along with the hundreds of trade rumors (real and imagined) that surface around the NBA Draft every year, there’s always that one prospect that plays really well down the stretch for a Final Four team and professional teams become enamored with. Most mock drafts that take place immediately after the National Championship game have that guy in the top five and think that he has the ability to move up even more.
Then as time goes on, scouts start to pick his game apart, other guys have monster workouts and people forget about the guy that they just saw excel against college basketball’s finest competition. It’s never made sense and it never will make sense.
For instance, in 2011 that guy was Brandon Knight. Knight was the Kentucky guard that led the Wildcats to the Final Four and was the latest in a long line of one-and-done prospects recruited by John Calipari. Everyone was high on him until he measured a little shorter than they expected in socks and started to over-analyze his deficiencies shooting the ball and he fell to the 8th pick in the first round.
In 2010, it was DeMarcus Cousins and in 2009 it was DeJuan Blair, so on and so forth.
At the 2012 draft, it’s looking more and more likely that the prospect that falls will be Kentucky freshman Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.
He fits the profile perfectly. As soon as the National Championship game ended most mock drafts had him going second overall, behind fellow Kentucky standout Anthony Davis. Everyone mentioned how much upside he had, how physical a defender he was and how he would step in and change the culture of a lottery team almost immediately.
Then a few weeks went by, and then even months. Then people started calling Bradley Beal the next Ray Allen (I do like Beal, but come on,) and people chose to ignore Harrison Barnes’ numerous red flags. Even Andre Drummond has jumped ahead in some mocks and he has so many potential character concerns, Boogie Cousins won’t even hang out with him.
Does that sound like the profile of a guy that some have called the next Scottie Pippen? Hardly. Could Kidd-Gilchrist use some more consistency with his jump shot? Of course he could. Would one more year in college have been good for him in the long run? Maybe, maybe not. There are a lot of things you can speculate about regarding Kidd-Gilchrist but the things that we know for sure are that he is a tenacious defender, runs the fast break and is a great teammate, and was the second best player on the National Champions of Kentucky.
Here’s a short list of the second-best guys on the past few national champs: Jeremy Lamb (top 15 prospect in the 2012 draft,) Nolan Smith (drafted last year, in Portland’s rotation,) and Ty Lawson (currently Denver’s point guard of the future.)
While it’s true that college basketball isn’t what it used to be, it would be crazy to ignore the contributions of a perimeter defender like Kidd-Gilchrist and while his offensive game isn’t totally evolved yet, he’s just 19 years old right now and he will almost definitely get better. You can teach a young guy how to shoot, but you can rarely teach a guy who doesn’t care how to play hard. It’s just a difficult transition and one that has gotten a lot of General Managers fired in the past.
You may be reading this and thinking that I’m a Kentucky Wildcat homer or something of the like. That couldn’t be less true. I actually kind of abhor “Big Blue” and am a card-carrying member of Razorback Nation (HogCast #3 available now!) I’m sure you’ve also seen my idea to send Rudy Gay to Charlotte for the 2nd overall pick. He’s a prospect that I believe in. For my money, he and Beal should go second and third in some order.
But what will NBA teams do? We’ve established that they over-think things entirely too much and that they’re enamored with upside. Maybe they think that Kidd-Gilchrist is too safe of a pick, but I don’t see the problem with that. What’s the worst-case scenario for Kidd-Gilchrist? He’s a great perimeter defender and athlete and that loves to get out in transition. If he improves his jump shooting just a little over the life of his career, he could be a key cog in any contender’s machine.
Best-case scenario: Kidd-Gilchrist falls to Cleveland at 4 and he begins his career next to Kyrie Irving and Anderson Varejao. The Cavs narrowly miss the playoffs in 2013, but break out in 2014 as a pseudo-contender. Kidd-Gilchrist becomes the ideal running mate for a young point guard and the duo become Cleveland’s hope for the next eight years.
Worst-case scenario: Kidd-Gilchrist goes to Charlotte at 2 and is instantly hailed as the savior. When he’s not, the fans and franchise turn on him and causes irrevocable damage to his psyche and he never lives up to his potential. Not even close.
What I’d like to see happen: This. MKG wouldn’t be counted on too much early on, he could learn the ropes from some veterans and get some coaching from Lionel Hollins. Memphis fans would love his game and I feel like he would love them back.
What will happen: Sacramento takes MKG at 5. The Kings have a glaring hole at the small forward position and a half-decent core elsewhere with Tyreke Evans, Boogie Cousins, Francisco Garcia and Isaiah Thomas. MKG would become another young prospect ready to lead the Kings to the next level. He can keep Cousins in line and give Thomas and Evans an exciting wing to play with. I actually really like the fit in Sacramento for the team and the player. I’m sold, call this one in.