The Three-Point Line: Where It All Went Wrong For The Grizzlies
By Kevin Yeung
May 21, 2013; San Antonio, TX, USA; Memphis Grizzlies guard Mike Conley (11) shoots against San Antonio Spurs guard Tony Parker (9) in game two of the Western Conference finals of the 2013 NBA Playoffs at AT
They had a good run this season, but it came to a screeching stop as the San Antonio Spurs swept the Memphis Grizzlies in the Western Conference Finals. Many experts had predicted Memphis to win that series, so it was a surprise when they couldn’t even win one game. What the hell happened?
You could blame a lot of things for why the Grizzlies lost. Nobody could stop Tony Parker, and Gregg Popovich proved to be a much better coach than Lionel Hollins. However, their most glaring problem didn’t come from any one person in particular. It was the three-point line, on both ends, that was their enemy.
Let’s take a look at the numbers. The San Antonio Spurs connected on 32 of 83 threes (37.6%), while the Grizzlies could only muster 22 makes on 63 attempts (34.9%). The difference isn’t overwhelming per se, but it was certainly noticeable. In the regular season, the Spurs’ percentage would’ve tied for fourth in the NBA, while the Grizzlies’ percentage would’ve ranked them 22nd.
However, the Grizzlies’ struggles don’t end there. 12 of their 22 threes came from Quincy Pondexter, who made nearly half of his 25 threes. His hot hand was huge for the Grizzlies and it’s possible to make an argument for QPon as the Grizzlies’ most valuable player during the series. However, Pondexter usually came in off the bench after the Spurs had claimed an early lead, and it was rare for Pondexter to play with a lead at all. The only exception was Game 3, in which Memphis stormed to a 29-13 first quarter lead–in large part due to Pondexter, unsurprisingly. Beyond that, however, he was the guy that got them back into games and did so spectacularly, but asking for more than that was too much.
Subtract QPon’s threes, and the rest of the Grizzlies went 10-of-38 from behind the three-point line–a 26.3% mark that was much less glamorous. Mike Conley and Jerryd Bayless hit four threes apiece (4-16 and 4-15 respectively, well below their season marks), while Tayshaun Prince and Keyon Dooling each made one.
Focusing on the starting lineup specifically, the Grizzlies were getting next to nothing from the perimeter. Mike Conley is normally a pretty good three-point shooter, averaging 1.3 makes on 36.1% shooting in the regular season, but his three-point shot was off in the series against the Spurs. With almost no threat coming from beyond the arc, the Spurs were free to clog the paint and make it difficult for Memphis to go to their big men, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. Look at the floor spacing in this example:
Conley is trying to run a pick-and-roll with Marc Gasol, but as you can see, the defense isn’t paying any attention to Tayshaun Prince and Tony Allen on the perimeter. Danny Green (guarding Allen) and Kawhi Leonard (guarding Prince) are free to slide closer in to the paint and limit Conley’s pass options while also challenging Conley himself. In the resulting look (image below), Tiago Splitter and Danny Green are slightly pressuring Conley from driving directly. Splitter and Tony Parker are preventing an easy pass to Gasol, and Tim Duncan is ready to slide over and provide help defense. Going Gasol-to-ZBo doesn’t work either, with the long Kawhi Leonard lurking for that exact pass.
The ability to do this defensively limited many of the Grizzlies’ offensive options, including pick-and-rolls, post ups on the low block, and high-low sets between Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. Additionally, it made it difficult for Mike Conley and Tony Allen to penetrate with the ball for layups, and dared the Grizzlies to beat them with perimeter shooting. That didn’t work.
On the other end, the San Antonio Spurs didn’t have the struggles Memphis had with shooting. Nobody on their team made threes the way Quincy Pondexter did, but they received the three-point shooting they needed from their three-point shooters.
Danny Green (8-17), Kawhi Leonard (7-13), Matt Bonner (6-14) and Manu Ginobili (4-14) regularly received open looks from three and drilled them. This kept Memphis’ defense honest, and allowed Tony Parker and Tim Duncan to do their damage in and around the paint without having to worry about a whole defense collapsing in on them. Any time Memphis double-teamed or sent a help defender, an open three-point shooter was a pass away. Precision ball movement was the key to San Antonio’s three-pointer advantage.
After the embarrassing sweep at the hands of the Spurs, the Grizzlies have to take a look in the mirror. Their need for three-point shooting will need to be addressed, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Quincy Pondexter replace Tayshaun Prince in the starting lineup next year. After a great season, the Grizzlies will be poised to go even farther (the NBA Finals! + more?) if they can make the right changes to their lineup.