Dec 16, 2014; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol (33) looks to pass as Golden State Warriors guard Klay Thompson (11) and forward Draymond Green (23) defend at FedExForum. Grizzlies defeated the Warriors 105-98. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports
The Memphis Grizzlies (50-22) will take on the Golden State Warriors (58-13) later tonight in Memphis at 7:00 PM CST. The Grizzlies, currently the #2 seed in the Western Conference, come into this game 8.5 games back of the Warriors, who at the moment are running away with the #1 overall seed in the NBA playoffs. Despite the seemingly large gap in the standings between the two teams, it should be noted that the Grizzlies have won 12 of their last 14 games against the Warriors, indicating that the Grizzlies really shouldn’t fear this Warriors team. While it is true that the Warriors have been playing much better than the Grizzlies this season, basketball is a game of match ups and it appears as though the Grizzlies actually match up well with the Warriors.
The number one advantage the Grizzlies have over the Warriors is their post play. Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol really are a force to be reckoned with in the paint, and the Warriors don’t really have an answer for them inside. Yes, the Warriors do have Andrew Bogut, Marreese Speights, and David Lee, but none of those three guys can hold a candle to either Gasol or Randolph. If the Grizzlies are going to win tonight’s game, they have to take advantage of their superior strength inside.
The second advantage the Grizzlies have over the Warriors is an extension of the first thing I mentioned: The Grizzlies don’t rely as much on the three-ball. As the old saying goes, if you live by the three, you die by the three. The Warriors live by the three and for the most part, it’s been working out just fine for them living that way.
But still, the Warriors play a risky brand of basketball, attempting 27.0 three-point shots per game, the fourth-highest in the league. When the three-ball is falling for the Warriors, there isn’t much any team can do, but when it isn’t, they have trouble finding ways to win. What makes this especially problematic when it comes to facing the Grizzlies, is the fact that the Grizzlies are a great perimeter defensive team with Tony Allen and Courtney Lee. The Warriors don’t like facing teams that play them tight on the perimeter and that’s exactly what the Grizzlies love to do.
The third advantage the Grizzlies have over the Warriors is that they have a more balanced scoring attack. The Warriors rely on Stephen Curry (23.4 ppg) and Klay Thompson (21.6 ppg) to score 45 points out of the 110 points that they score on average. That’s 40% of their entire offensive scoring production. If either of those guys has an off night, which at the moment is a rare occurrence, the Warriors can have a hard time winning games.
As for the Grizzlies, they average 99 points per game, and their two leading scorers Marc Gasol (17.8 ppg) and Zach Randolph (16.4 ppg) account for 35% of their total offensive production. It’s nice to not have to rely so heavily on two players. In addition, Mike Conley (16.1 ppg) and Jeff Green (15.1 ppg) combine to produce 31% of the Grizzlies’ total offensive production, so that’s four guys who combine to produce 66% of the points every night. The fact that the Grizzlies have more balance when it comes to scoring is definitely a nice luxury to have since they don’t need to have the fear of losing due to one of their players going cold.
However, despite these advantages, the Warriors are 8.5 games up on the Grizzlies for a reason. They consistently play well every night and they can defend. Andre Iguodala is just as good of a defender on the perimeter as anybody on the Grizzlies, and while he is known for making it rain from beyond the arc, Stephen Curry is a very underrated defender, averaging 2.1 steals per game.
Unlike Warriors teams of previous eras, the Warriors under the guidance of Steve Kerr are winning games by their defense as much as they are winning by their offense. It will be very difficult for the Grizzlies to eclipse 100 points tonight thanks to the Warriors’ defense. If the Grizzlies are going to win tonight, they’re going to have to make some shots from the perimeter and also prevent Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson from going off, two things that won’t be easy for them to do.
Still, I like the Grizzlies to win this game. For one thing they are at home and secondly, they need to win this game far more than the Warriors do. The Warriors are going to clinch home court advantage throughout the playoffs, but as for the Grizzlies, they still have work to do if they want to clinch the #2 seed in the Western Conference.
Plus, the Grizzlies should feel motivated to send a message that they are still a legitimate threat to win the NBA championship. It feels as though everybody is forgetting about the Grizzlies, and a win over the Warriors would certainly help remind people that they are still a force to be reckoned with. Look for this game to be very close and entertaining. Go Grizz!