Analyzing of the ESPN Forecast
In ESPN’s NBA Summer Forecast, the Memphis Grizzlies were ranked 7th in the West with a 43-39 record. Is it another case of the Grizz being underestimated?
All of the offseason chaos has officially settled down. The draft is over and displayed much parity. Many stars such as Kevin Durant, Al Horford, Derrick Rose and Dwyane Wade will be suiting up for different teams in the fall.
In ESPN’s annual Summer Forecast, the Memphis Grizzlies are projected to finish with a 43-39 record and finish seventh in the Western Conference:
A team that spent 20-plus games without its two best players in Marc Gasol and Mike Conley and still finished better than .500 (42-40) is projected to only have a one-win improvement.
Let’s not forget that the Memphis Grizzlies had a firm grasp of fifth place and were in contention for fourth before their barrage of injuries. If the Memphis Grizzlies did not get bombarded with injuries, they looked to be on pace for another 50-win season.
"A total of 28 players saw action for the Grizzlies last season, an NBA single-season record, so why does our panel project an improvement of only one win, despite the Grizzlies adding Chandler Parsons and re-signing Mike Conley? Age and health are factors. Zach Randolph turned 35 in July and saw declines in scoring and rebounding last season. And Marc Gasol, who will be 32 by season’s end, is recovering from a broken foot and has missed 20 or more games in two of the past three seasons. — ESPN"
The Memphis Grizzlies had to rely on washed NBA veterans such as Jordan Farmar, Matt Barnes and Vince Carter along with a plethora of NBA D-League players.
In the middle of the season, they traded away solid starting pieces in Jeff Green and Courtney Lee for a wild Lance Stephenson, an inconsistent P.J. Hairston, a washed up Chris Andersen and a load of picks.
Health is a very important part to a team’s success, but every team has to deal with “health.” Any team could lose their best player(s) in any given game. Stephen Curry has had ankle issues. Durant had a scary foot injury a few years ago. Russell Westbrook has had knee trouble.
Not too long ago, Kyrie Irving was labeled “injury-prone.” Anthony Davis is still considered “injury-prone.” Basing the Memphis Grizzlies’ projection almost solely on health seems to be a bit ludicrous.
ESPN’s projection is underrating the Memphis Grizzlies. They are projected to finish behind the Warriors, Spurs, Clippers, Blazers, Jazz and Thunder. All these teams are solid ball clubs, which makes the Western Conference difficult to project. After the Warriors, just about anything goes.
The Spurs gained Pau Gasol, but lost key pieces in Tim Duncan, Boris Diaw and David West.
LaMarcus Aldridge and Kawhi Leonard will, of course, be spectacular; however, Danny Green‘s inconsistent shooting season (33 percent shooting from 3), Tony Parker‘s age and other factors will affect their seeding in the Western Conference.
The Clippers brought back their core and signed backup big men Marreese Speights and Brandon Bass. The Clippers have a great roster on paper and have dominated regular seasons; however, they have not made the Western Conference Finals.
The quartet of Chris Paul–J.J. Redick–Blake Griffin–DeAndre Jordan is elite, but their supporting cast is old and inconsistent.
The Blazers have one of the league’s best backcourts in Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. They also have one of the league’s most underrated players in Al Farouq-Aminu.
Festus Ezeli, Ed Davis, Meyers Leonard and Mason Plumee are quality young big men; however, can they power over Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph? They threw big money at Evan Turner and Maurice Harkless, two wing players who can can’t shoot.
There’s no doubt that this team will be very good, but the Memphis Grizzlies have the balance and continuity to give them a run for their money.
The Jazz quietly had one of the best offseasons. They did not lose any of their young core of Dante Exum–Rodney Hood–Gordon Hayward–Derrick Favors–Rudy Gobert.
In addition, they flipped their No. 12 overall pick into veteran starting point guard George Hill and signed Joe Johnson and Diaw. These three players could propel a Utah team, which could have made the playoffs barring injury, into contention for the Northwest Division title.
The Thunder lost Durant and Serge Ibaka but still have human-wrecking ball Westbrook. He can easily tear through the entire NBA, win the MVP and give the Thunder home-court advantage in the first round.
A Victor Oladipo–Steven Adams-Westbrook trio is strong, but their supporting cast may be too young and inconsistent to power through the Memphis Grizzlies and any team ranked above them.
The Memphis Grizzlies’ health and age will be their story through the season and this offseason. The addition of Chandler Parsons bolsters their already strong starting lineup. Gasol is still a top center in the league. Zach Randolph can still pull out a few 20-10 performances in a season.
Conley is probably the league’s “best non-All-Star.” Tony Allen, at the age of 34, still put together a strong enough defensive effort to make the All-Defensive Second Team.
David Fizdale’s player development wizardry may do immediate wonders for young guys James Ennis, Troy Daniels, JaMychal Green and Jarell Martin.
ESPN’s projection is the beginning of another year of the media degrading the Memphis Grizzlies. This year, they may have enough firepower to silence the critics, once more.