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What if: The Memphis Grizzlies’ draft-day trade of 2008

By Mike Parrott

June 19, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward Kevin Love (0) speaks to media following the 93-89 victory against the Golden State Warriors in game seven of the NBA Finals at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
June 19, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward Kevin Love (0) speaks to media following the 93-89 victory against the Golden State Warriors in game seven of the NBA Finals at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports /
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‘What if’ is the newest column for the Beale Street Bears covering hypotheticals throughout the history of the Memphis Grizzlies. Subjects covered will include trades, drafts and hirings. This edition is the 2008 NBA draft-day trade.

In 2008 on the day of the NBA draft, the Memphis Grizzlies selected power forward Kevin Love with the fifth overall pick. However, he was part of a trade that day that sent himself, Mike Miller, Brian Cardinal and Jason Collins to the Minnesota Timberwolves for the third pic,k O.J Mayo, Marko Jaric, Antoine Walker and Greg Buckner. What if this never happened?

Gone off Mayo

Would the Grizzlies have been better with Love, not Mayo?
Jan 2, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Milwaukee Bucks guard O.J. Mayo (3) is escorted off the court after he was ejected from the game against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first quarter at Target Center. The Bucks win 95-85. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports /

The scenes that followed the trade was a monumental failure of a year with the Grizzlies finishing with a 24-58 record. Rudy Gay was the top performer with 18.9 points per game and O.J Mayo followed closely with 18.5 himself. However, as we know, the Mayo experiment was a complete failure in Memphis. He as off the team within four years and never averaging higher stats than his rookie season. Mayo is currently suspended from the league.

But what if they never did the trade?

“It’s Miller Time”

A big reason for the trade in the first place was Memphis being able to dump Collins’ and Cardinal’s contracts, which added up to $6.2 million and $6.3 million respectively.

However, is cap dumping worth it when you could’ve had Kevin Love and also kept sharpshooter Mike Miller? The answer, obviously, is no.

Miller was just coming off a great season of 16.4 pointers per game while shooting 43 percent from behind the arc. Not all-star numbers, but amazing role-players number that look very equal next to championship-winning  all-star Ray Allen of the same year.

Mike Miller 2007-08: 16.4 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 3.4 APG, .432 3PT%, .625 TS%

Ray Allen 2007-08: 17.4 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 3.1 APG, .398 3PT%, .584 TS%

And then there’s Love. Where would we be without it?

What is Love?

When you compare Love and Mayo off their basic stats in their rookie seasons, it looks like Mayo was the better player. But they don’t include that Love only played 25 minutes per game. When it comes to per 36 their stats are very similar.

Kevin Love 2008-09 Per 36: 15.8 PPG, 12.9 RPG, 1.5 APG, 18.3 PER, .538 TS%

O.J Mayo 2008-09 per 36: 17.5 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 3 APG, 14.2 PER, .539 TS%

These stats show not much of a difference. At the time Mayo was a better handler and a better shooter by a small margin. However, this was Mayo’s best ever season, this was Love’s season to grow as a young prospect.

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Mayo went on to average 13.8 PPG for his career on a .429 FG%. Love has averaged, up to now, 18.3 PPG on a .444 FG%, but with also 11.5 RPG. What makes it even more one-sided is Love’s career stats being ‘ruined’ by playing next to LeBron James for two seasons.

While in Minnesota playing at power forward, Love averaged 20.9 PPG, 13.2 RPG, 2.7 APG, .43 FG%, .34 3PT%.

What would’ve happened?

What would’ve happened in the 2008-2009 season if they stayed with what they had? We’ll also stick with real life that Miller regressed in this season (even though we’ll never know if that would’ve happened in Memphis). In terms of win shares, Love would’ve added 1.9 more wins than Mayo, and Miller adding 4.2 wins (plus taking off Jaric’s -0.4 wins), the Grizzlies would’ve ended up with a 31-51 record and would’ve moved up a spot and taken the 10th place in the conference.

The ramifications would’ve been a lottery slip down from the sixth best chance to eighth best chance. However if they did drop down the lottery they might have not felt inclined to take a certain Hasheem Thabeet and taken one of the best players available between the fifth and ninth picks.

What could’ve been?

Starting Lineup:

PG: Mike Conley

SG: Mike Miller

SF: Rudy Gay

PF: Kevin Love

C: Marc Gasol

This lineup could’ve been dangerous for years to come, especially with adding a top-8 pick in the 2009 NBA draft. However, they took Mayo.

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