Player Preview No. 2: Marc Gasol
By Mike Parrott
Spanish big man, Marc Gasol is coming off an injury-riddled season, but can he come back into form this season for the Memphis Grizzlies?
The man in the middle
Marc Gasol is about to start his ninth season in the NBA, but this could be his most pivotal if he wants to see his Memphis Grizzlies be in the top echelon of the NBA’s elite teams. It’s only been a few years since Gasol was seen as the best center in the NBA and coming off an award-winning season. Now there’s question marks surrounding the big man to see if he’s past his prime and if he can hold up health-wise.
2015-2016 stat line
Marc Gasol: 16.6 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1 SPG, 1.3 BPG, 17.7 PER, .528 TS%
Gasol’s stats were down from previous years (career high is 17.4 PPG), but they are still respectable numbers for a player who only played half the season and ages more with every game. His improvements have to be his FG% though. Last season, he averaged a .464 FG%, a career-low. The percentages need to rise if Gasol wants to be a star again, and if he wants the Grizzlies to be contenders again.
A recurring problem with Gasol are his mediocre rebounding stats. People will argue that it’s due to Zach Randolph’s rebounding rate. However, according to nbawowy.com, Gasol’s total rebounding rate per 100 possessions only improves by 0.9 from 10.7 to 11.6 with Randolph off the court. To put that in perspective, point guard Russell Westbrook averages 0.2 more TRR per 100. These are not good enough stats for a 7’0” center.
Related Story: Can Marc Gasol be great again?
According to CARMELO by FiveThirtyEight, Gasol will have an improved season, but not by much. The improvement being a .9 improvement in wins above replacement player (WARP). CARMELO can be skewed by the previous season (with Gasol being inured), most notably Gasol’s 2014/15 season being a 10.1 WARP. Last year it was 3.0 WARP. CARMELO also have Gasol being a net negative on offense, but a net positive on defense.
Fit this season
Coach David Fizdale and Grizzlies fans need Gasol to look reminiscent of his prime, rather than his injured self. With Gasol in his prime, this team becomes very versatile due to his passing ability. With Gasol being the owner of an 18.9 assist percentage, Chandler Parsons having a 16 percent ratio, and Mike Conley having a 32.7 ratio, this team can move the ball fast and precise, causing huge mismatches. This, however, is one of Gasol’s stats that hasn’t regressed. With his assists per game fluctuating between 3.9 and 4.1 for the last four years.
A good reason why he fits with these new Grizzlies is due to his ability to stretch the floor. It’s evident Gasol is a great floor-spacer with his midrange and high-post game. This is due to his average distance of a field goal being 10 feet. Also more of his shots coming from further out than 16 feet than they are within two feet. This is a good asset for the Grizzlies due to their widely-known want for improved three-point shooting and Gasol helps with opening driving lanes.
If Gasol can play to a level just below his prime, he will be the most valuable player for Memphis’ offense and defence.
Best Case
Best case for Gasol this year is staying healthy and putting up his prime numbers. If he can average his career high in points (18.9 PPG) and also defend to his DPOY potential, the Grizzlies will be a force.
On his day, Gasol is the best Center in the NBA with his versatility and ability to rim-protect, shoot, and play in the post. If the Grizzlies want to be serious contenders this year to try and lure another free agent, they need Gasol to do this.
This case isn’t that hard to achieve, though, for Gasol. If he can stay healthy, all of this can happen and he can at least be a top-three center again in the NBA.
Worst Case
The worst case for Gasol is aggravating his injury. Gasol wasn’t at his best last year and that was seen with a career-low FG%. This can be mostly down to his injury. It also doesn’t look good that he missed the Olympics due to his injury which means his last competitive game was in February. That’s eight months if he plays in preseason*.
*Editors note: Marc Gasol is playing the the Memphis Grizzlies’ intersquad scrimmage at the beginning of October.
More from Beale Street Bears
- Dillon Brooks speaks out after beating former Grizzlies teammate in World Cup
- Jaren Jackson Jr. puts ex-Grizzlies teammate on notice
- 3 players Grizzlies would consider trading Ja Morant for
- Grizzlies star Jaren Jackson Jr. put on blast following FIBA elimination
- Ex-Grizzlies guard signs with title favorite, joins forces with 6-time All-Star
This could also mean that he plays very sloppy for the first few months if he doesn’t aggravate his injury. Big men have always been known to take longer to get into rhythm. And not playing competitive basketball for months means the rust may be building up.
Realistic Case
Realistically, he will be a bit sloppy coming out of the gate and won’t start putting up his regular numbers until the turn of the year. However, there will probably be a lesser chance of injury if Brandan Wright and Zach Randolph stay healthy, forcing him to take a healthy workload.
The most realistic and sensible case is to rest Gasol. This can stop the chance of an injury and let Randolph play there in small-ball situations. Gasol is needed most in the playoffs if the Grizzlies want to make a run. He’ll put up his career averages, nothing too flashy, but that will be due to a low number of minutes per game.
He can play similar to his prime if he’s rested enough and plays in spurts like his older brother. However, if this happens, Gasol will be in the conversation again for being the best Center in the NBA.