What if: the 2003 NBA Draft, LeBron James and the Memphis Grizzlies
By Mike Parrott
2003-04 Season
In reality, the Grizzlies had a 50-win season with Pau Gasol cementing his stardom and becoming one of the best bigs in the game with Hubie Brown as coach (supposedly an amazing coach who had a 49 percent win percentage). The Grizzlies looked very good, but they could’ve been even better.
Enter fiction
James would’ve made an instant impact the same way he did with Cleveland. But with even bigger improvements to the team. For example, the Cavs’ pace slowed down when Lebron joined (94 to 90.8 possessions per game), however, their offensive rating went up +4.9 (96.5 to 101.4) and their defensive rating dropped -2.5 (106.7 to 104.2).This made the Cavs go from the worst team in the league to ninth in the East, all on the back of LeBron.
Now with Memphis, they were already a really good team. They ended the season as the sixth seed in the West, but were swept by the San Antonio Spurs. In terms of win shares per 48 minutes, the Grizzlies totaled 55 wins (reality was 50). If we add LeBron’s rookie year W/S per 48, and do the same difference between projected win shares and actual wins (10 percent difference) in theory, the Grizzlies would’ve won 58 games. This in turn makes Memphis the joint top seed (with the Timberwolves) and gives them a much easier match-up in the playoffs.
Playoffs
If the rest of the NBA stayed the same in terms of wins, the Grizzlies would’ve faced the Nuggets in the first round, being led by another star rookie, Carmelo Anthony. The Grizzlies would’ve overpowered them with LeBron over Melo and Gasol over Nene making it smooth sailing. Then onto their real test, the Spurs. In reality, they were knocked out by the Spurs via sweep. In the said series, the Grizzlies couldn’t play their style of offense with only Gasol averaging over 15 points per game. However, LeBron would’ve changed that. Changed it enough to beat the Spurs? Probably not. Tim Duncan and Tony Parker were just too damn good that series for a LeBron-led Memphis to beat them.
James made the Grizz a much better team in his first season.