In the wake of new a Supreme Court ruling, betting on the NBA could change forever. We sat down with a seasoned sports better to find out what it all really means.
May 14 2018 could go down as a landmark date in the annals of professional sports leagues. It was on this (recent) date that the United States Supreme Court quashed federal legislation outlawing sports betting in most states.
This paves the way for massive financial and cultural implications, both for leagues and the country as a whole. Adam Silver has put the NBA at the forefront of this hot-button issue; opining for league sharing of gambling revenues.
There are many takes on what the eventual impact of this ruling will be. Since sports betting has been forced into backrooms and offshore sites, it is a largely untapped resource. Much of its potential is still nebulous; existing within margins and grey areas.
As a lifelong NBA addict, I know basketball. As an experienced poker player, I know gambling. As a matter of choice the two have rarely merged in my life, so I know very little about wagering on sports.
Curious about the impact this ruling could have, I asked a friend – we’ll call him Wendell. Wendell’s main source of income is sports betting. For years, he’s combed sites for favorable propositions, operating mostly in silence while his profits have mounted. For better or worse, this ruling will create a dramatic shift in his field.
To New Beginnings
So what does a seasoned gambler think this new ruling’s impact will be? The outcomes are wide, but the potential is great:
“I think if it is managed right – and that is a big if – we could potentially see a sports betting boom similar to the “poker boom” that occurred 15 years ago”, Wendell explains.
“This industry will explode in the USA within the next few years. You’ll see nearly every casino/gambling establishment that’s able to apply for a license attempting to open their own sportsbook. It opens up a whole new revenue stream for any business (in legislated states)”.
Rookies and Veterans
The vast majority of the population will be new to sports betting. A different facet of sports entertainment thus spawns as a former taboo activity grows into comfortable leisure:
“(Venue availability) is going to bring in many new gamblers. Being able to bet on sporting events at your local casino feels like that much more of a safer alternative compared to offshore books. The thought of being able to bet on, say, a Knicks game when you’re actually in Madison Square Garden, just by walking up to a booth in the arena, is something else”.
However, for those like Wendell who have grinded the trenches of pre-2018 sports betting, the effect is quite divided:
“For the experienced offshore gamblers, it may become more difficult to turn profit. These books will absolutely lose a large portion of the US market. This may force books to increase the vig (juice/interest) on the lines, decrease signup/rakeback bonuses, or even shut down operations completely”.
“However, for the sharps who bet at casinos, you could almost argue the opposite. Casinos will be bringing in a large influx of new gamblers looking to bet sports. It may become easier for a winning bettor to slip under the cracks in this case. Having such volume of wagers to keep track of, it may be overwhelming for the books to decipher winning bettors from losing ones”.
And if you prefer – for whatever reason – to lay bets with the fedora-clad dude with the “office” in back of a nearby laundromat, fear not:
“The underground bookies will remain present, as they often let players play on credit. Casinos will just not let you do that, period”.
Numbers on the Board
As for the odds themselves, the influx of new, inexperienced gamblers may not tilt the scales all that much:
“The odds/lines on the actual games will remain the same. Computer and analytical models are what create the given odds on any game, and I do not think the software will change that much. There are only so many odds providers (companies that run these models to create the odds) so you will likely see very similar odds no matter where you are placing the bets”.
However on a micro scale, there could be a geographic impact across different markets, like Memphis neighbor Tunica, Miss:
“It will likely create unbalanced action for sportsbooks. For example, a book located in the Memphis area would have a lot more action on the Grizzlies than, say, the Spurs, in that matchup. Local underground bookies have been dealing with these problems forever though and the new sportsbooks will absolutely find ways to balance out the action”.
Betraying the Game?
The NBA has some sports-betting skeletons buried not-so-deep in their closet. However, Wendell doesn’t believe embracing this new legislation opens them up to compromised integrity:
“Of course, the first thing that comes to mind is the entire Tim Donaghy fiasco. That was a dark period for the league, but I think that is long behind them. The league revenue and player salaries have exploded, more or less to the point where anyone taking money to dive or shave points just won’t ever happen.
“It feels like (sanctioned fan gambling) is where the NBA wants this entire legalization to go, as they know they would have their hand in the cookie jar if it got to this point. I can guarantee you (the NBA) will have an unreal security system in place”.
But this impact could be felt elsewhere:
“This may be a concern for other leagues though, for example, NCAA sports where student athletes do not earn an annual salary. NCAA athletes have been caught taking dives in the past and the fact that sports betting will be much more widely available and accessible creates a giant integrity issue.”
Proceeding With Caution
So as the NBA embarks on this new frontier, the possibilities are endless. While there are certain inherent risks and threats, the potential for new revenue and an enhanced fan experience seems to outweigh the current cons. The NBA has hopefully learned from past mistakes, and will undertake every necessary precaution in its gambling forays. Hopefully, the same can be said for the millions who will now be betting on sports thanks to this ruling.
Speaking of which, as a parting gift, some wise words from Wendell for those wagering on the Grizzlies:
“Man they were bad this year! They seemed to play decent at home, and I often found myself taking the points when they’d be a 5-9 point home underdog”.
“My advice would be to take Memphis to cover the spread next year when they’re a sizeable home underdog. They often tend to show up big for these games, can’t tell you why. Gasol and Conley can ball, though, I’ll give them that”.