Memphis Grizzlies: To Tank or Not To Tank

The Memphis Grizzlies suddenly find themselves in the thick of the Western Conference playoff race. Does this unexpected turn force them to reconsider their priorities for 2019-20?

The Memphis Grizzlies were supposed to be bad this season.

It was the first full year of a rebuild. Two franchise pillars had just been traded. Their best players were mostly youngsters. They’d flipped over half their roster in the offseason. Their head coach had only been a head coach in Summer League.

Obviously things haven’t gone exactly to plan. As of writing, Memphis finds themselves just one game out of eighth place in the West. They’re 9-6 over their past 15, (10th in the league) and have the league’s median difficulty of remaining schedule, per Tankathon.

Memphis is punching above their weight for a number of reasons, and causes for optimism abound. From Ja Morant hitting his expectation ceiling, to Jaren Jackson Jr’s delayed mini-leap, and Brandon Clarke leading all rookies in PER by a mile.

But the reality is that Memphis’ stock is inflated a bit, the bottom of the West has been far worse than expected.

The Portland Trail Blazers have taken strides back on both sides of the ball. The Minnesota Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns have come crashing back to Earth. The Sacramento Kings and New Orleans Pelicans – both preseason dark-horse playoff contenders – have been disasters. And obviously the Golden State Warriors vacated a likely playoff spot the moment Steph Curry went down.

Memphis’ pseudo-playoff contender status is aided perhaps more by external than internal factors. The facile flip-side is that Memphis is also very close to tanking status; just 2.5 games separate them and 14th-place New Orleans.

Thus Memphis is at a crossroads, one only complicated by the looming first-round pick they owe the Boston Celtics. Testing this young team’s ceiling would be a fun experiment for the Grizzlies’ new brain trust. It would get their young studs max reps and engage a small-market fanbase. Hitting fast-forward on the rebuild while shedding the obligation to Boston is tempting.

But like many excitement-inducing decisions, it may not be entirely prudent.

If Memphis pushes for the playoffs, they will essentially punt the top-8 protection on the Celtics pick. In doing so, they’ll be denying themselves valuable draft equity as they cobble their rotation. With Morant, Jackson and Clarke already impressive, and loads of cap room next summer, Memphis is unlikely to be this bad again any time soon.

Instead, if the Grizzlies load-manage Morant and Clarke, trade Andre Iguodala and Jae Crowder for non-present assets, and bench De’Anthony Melton, they can set themselves up for the future.

A mid-lotto pick could do wonders for Memphis’s foundation which, despite looking great, isn’t complete. The wing is still very much a question mark for them, although Clarke and Jackson’s defensive versatility help mask it.

Memphis can thus fortify their core through the lottery and/or free agency, mixed with growth and continuity from their young stars. Their ascent will be far more organic and sustainable. The Celtics pick will become unprotected, but Memphis will likely improve enough for it to not matter.

Then, they can continue to legitimately compete in what should be a tougher conference, giving up what will likely be a worse pick without incurring the opportunity cost themselves.

This may sound boring to Memphis fans who spent most of the last decade making postseason runs. But this young Grizzlies core has the potential to do far more than #GNG ever did. If all breaks right, they could be truly great.

Part of that is proper incubation. Memphis is currently seven games under .500, sporting the NBA’s 23rd-ranked net rating. The standings obscure the truth that this is not a playoff team – yet.

Despite obvious reason for excitement, the Memphis Grizzlies would benefit a great deal from tanking this season. The wait could very well be worth it.