Could Ja Morant be a future MVP?

Ja Morant was putting on an incredible rookie campaign for the Memphis Grizzlies before the season hiatus. Does he have what it takes to win the league’s most prestigious award?

Even with the season being suddenly suspended, Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant is the clear choice for this seasons Rookie of the Year award (yeah, sorry Kendrick Nunn).

Still, with any player who puts up numbers like Morant’s, there’s always questions about whether or not he’ll be the league MVP one day. Morant’s numbers were great, and assuming he follow a pretty traditional development path for the league, does he have a chance to win the league’s top trophey?

Well, how does he stack up to the last five MVPs for the league (and yes, we’re including Kevin Durant in that list, since Stephen Curry won twice)? Well, at 17.6 points per game and 49.1% field goal percentage, he is averaging more points with a higher shooting percentage than any of those five players in their rookie years; though it should be mentioned that Giannis Antetokounmpo and James Harden arguably had huge unexpected leaps in their development, Russell Westbrook had to share the court with Durant, and Curry did average 17.5 points.

It should also be noted that he took less shots per game than Durant or Curry, Westbrook and Harden again were sharing the ball with Durant (and Harden had to do it with both Durant and Westbrook), and Antetokounmpo wasn’t a huge part of the Milwaukee Bucks gameplan, only having a usage rate of 15.0 percent in his rookie season, compared to Morant’s 26.0 percent.

There could also be an argument made that Morant needs to improve his 3-point shooting ability. Morant shot more 3-point shots on a higher percentage than Antetokounmpo, Westbrook, or Durant did in their rookie campaigns, but Giannis and Westbrook have never been amazing 3-point shooters, and Durant has never fallen below Morant’s 2.4 attempts per game, though he has fallen below 36.7 percent shooting four times in his career.

Aside from those comparisons, Morant is also going to be facing some serious competition throughout his career with players drafted right before him, or in the same draft.

Luka Doncic, drafted one year before Morant, seems bound for at least one MVP campaign, and has taken the league by storm as one of it’s “next big thing”s. Trae Young, taken in the same draft that Doncic was, has seen marked improvements across the board for his game, and is evolving into one of the best shooters in the league. Zion Williamson, taking first overall in the same draft where Morant was taken, has an otherworldly talent set for someone of his build, and considering he was getting Rookie of the Year buzz despite playing just 19 games, will probably be the recipient of a few MVPs in his career.

Morant’s also going to face another difficult challenge: his team. Not that the Grizzlies are bad by any stretch of the word, but there’s an argument that the MVP is awarded to the best player on the best team, and the Dallas Mavericks were already outpacing the Grizzlies before the season began. There’s an argument to be made that, should Williamson have started the season healthy, the New Orleans Pelicans would have been in the eighth seed and not the Grizzlies, and the Atlanta Hawks are building a dangerous crew of their own. Not to mention that when Bronny Jr. enters the league there will certainly be an extraordinary amount of focus and pressure on him to win one.

So, in the end the question really isn’t one of whether or not he’s talented enough to win one, because it’s obvious he is. But the MVP award isn’t always decided by just talent. There’s an argument to be made that Dwayne Wade would’ve won an MVP award if it wasn’t for Steve Nash, and then later on LeBron James; there’s an argument to be made that Isaiah Thomas would’ve won an MVP if it wasn’t for Magic Johnson and Michael Jordan. The ultimate question, really, is will Morant be a great enough talent to enforce his will upon the league–especially in a small market like Memphis. Early signs look good, but only time will tell.