Memphis Grizzlies: 5 big questions for the 2020-21 season

1. Will the Grizzlies make the playoffs?

Obviously, it all boils down to this.

After the Memphis Grizzlies came agonizingly close to the postseason last year, there’s understandable anxiety amid fans about their chances of keeping that pace.

The honest truth is that’s difficult to both peg a clear hierarchy in the West, and accurately assess the Grizzlies.

Of the 15 teams out West, only the Oklahoma City Thunder are openly punting this season. Barring injury, the L.A. teams, Denver, Utah, Dallas, and Portland are all playoff locks. Houston will likely join them if James Harden ever leaves Vegas.

That pits seven teams fighting for one or two playoff spots. None of them are delusional in believing themselves playoff contenders (okay, maybe the Kings are). But it’s a race in which the Phoenix Suns unquestionably have the inside track with the Chris Paul acquisition.

From a pure probability perspective, the odds are clearly against Memphis. However, they have among the most upside of all the playoff hopefuls.

If sports betting markets know anything (and they certainly do), Memphis’ core is primed for a leap. Over at DraftKings Sportsbook, Jaren Jackson Jr. sits fourth in Most Improved Player odds (+1,500), with Ja Morant tied for 11th (+3,000) and Brandon Clarke tied for 15th (+3,300). While this obviously doesn’t guarantee improvement, it implies that very sophisticated analytical models are projecting it from Memphis’ most important guys.

Elsewhere, more signs point to potential upside:

• The roster’s cohesive growth from continuity and experience.
• Taylor Jenkins expanding on his stellar debut season.
• An essential freeroll on Justise Winslow’s health.
• The safe assumption that any roster tweaks, however minor, have probably helped this team.

It’s really anyone’s guess what this season’s outcome will be for Memphis. They could realistically finish anywhere between seventh and thirteenth, depending on an array of variables both internal and external.

Further complicating the crapshoot is the upcoming season’s format. With a rushed, condensed schedule, we’re likely to see weird outcomes akin to the lockout-shortened ’11-’12 season. There’s also the possibility of an outsider back-dooring their way into the postseason via the play-in games.

If we have to make a firm prediction, the safe bet is that the Grizzlies will, again, narrowly miss the postseason.

But a 2021 playoff appearance is well within their potential, and any of several factors could break their way. These Grizzlies have given fans all kinds of reason for optimism, so let’s indulge their efforts.