Grizzlies: Why The Ringer thinks Jaren Jackson Jr. doesn’t deserve a maximum extension

You can use a lot of words to describe the Memphis Grizzlies‘ offseason thus far — simple is not one of them. The Grizzlies have now made six trades this offseason with no end in sight. The most recent deal netted Memphis two more players to add to an already-full roster in Kris Dunn and Carsen Edwards.

The scariest part? The Grizzlies’ most complicated decision is still on the horizon, with a Jaren Jackson Jr. extension looming in the distance.

The Ringer doesn’t think Grizzlies F Jaren Jackson Jr. will get a maximum extension

If we’re being honest, the headline above should not shock you in any way. Jaren Jackson Jr. has been everything that he was promised to be when the Grizzlies took him with the 4th-overall pick in the 2018 NBA Draft. Unfortunately, his career has been overshadowed by a bulk of injuries thus far.

When he has played, it’s been clear that he hasn’t been able to get into a groove. Take last season as an example. JJJ averaged career lows on the offensive end in statistics like points per game, field goal percentage, and three-point field goal percentage and was a whisper of what he was before the injury. This isn’t so much a worry that the injury will derail his career, rather, a worry of whether or not he’ll ever truly be able to play a full season.

The Ringer’s Dan Devine doesn’t think Jackson will be able to earn a maximum extension — nobody does — but he does think that there could be a lucrative deal in the young forward’s future. Here’s what he said.

"“Maybe player and team can find a compromise somewhere in the middle—say, something on the order of the four-year extension that the Magic gave Jonathan Isaac after he tore his left ACL, one with certain injury protections built-in but that could tack an extra $10 million or $15 million onto the total if he meets some games-played incentives.”"

Jonathan Isaac is a great example to work from. He’s a player who has clear potential but was dragged down by injuries. If anything, Jackson Jr.’s injury of a torn meniscus should be considered less severe, as the Grizzlies took the cautious route to recovery along with the fact that we’ve seen successful recoveries from that type of injury.

Logically, this means that the Grizzlies should look at a similar offer. The Grizzlies would likely have to pay more than Isaac’s $17 million guaranteed per season, but they may be inclined to give JJJ a higher total of incentive-based money.

Still, a question remains — when are the Grizzlies going to offer JJJ an extension?

This is the part that gets tricky. In all likelihood, Memphis will offer JJJ an extension this offseason. Heck, they may have already done so. The real part that is up for debate is whether Jackson. Jr. will accept it or roll the dice and have a great contract year that will pay off for him in the long run. Another injury or poor season in this time frame could send him down a rough path, but a strong year would send him toward a maximum contract.

This was also referenced in The Ringer’s article.

"“Would Jackson, the no. 4 pick in the draft just three years ago, balk at such a conditional payday, preferring to bet on himself, try to ball out this season, and hit next summer as a stronger max candidate in restricted free agency? Or will a player who’s missed nearly half of his games to date opt for the security of a long-term but less lucrative guarantee right now?”"

Financially, Grizzlies fans will hope that he takes a smaller contract, as we all know that he’s capable of being a star. Still, in our hearts, we all want Jaren Jackson Jr. to get paid.