The 2022 NBA Draft Lottery will be conducted tonight and for once, it feels kind of refreshing that the Memphis Grizzlies aren’t going to be involved in the pageantry that decides who gets the top-three picks in next month’s draft.
The team is not sending anyone to Chicago to represent the team because there is longer than a long-shot that the team will score one of the top-14 picks in the draft.
So, even though it’s a long-shot, you’re saying there’s a chance?
How the Memphis Grizzlies can sneak into the 2022 NBA Draft lottery
Without jumping through too many convoluted hoops, here’s how the Grizzlies can land a Top-14 pick tonight.
The Grizzlies will acquire the 2022 first round pick from the Los Angeles Lakers in the event that it falls outside of the Top-10.
For that to happen, three teams will have to leap frog the Lakers (currently slotted at No. 8) in order to jump into the top-three.
So, some combination of three of these teams would force the Lakers to slide back in the draft to No. 11:
- San Antonio Spurs
- Washington Wizards
- New York Knicks
- Los Angeles Clippers (conveys to Oklahoma City)
- Charlotte Hornets
- Cleveland Cavaliers
Let’s go Grizzlies!!!!! There’s still a chance that pick conveys. Took me 9 simulations. pic.twitter.com/1BQxPYVO9l
— Ant (@Grizz_Fan_Ant) May 17, 2022
Hoops Rumors has calculated the chances for the Lakers pick to fall outside the Top-10 and it’s basically microscopic: a 0.4% chance.
Put another way, the Lakers have a 34.5% chance to land the No. 8 pick, which would convey to New Orleans. They have a 32.1% chance to land the No. 9 pick (move back one spot). They have a 6.7% chance to get the No. 10 pick (moving back two spots), which is almost as good as odds as they have to win the lottery and earn the No. 1 overall pick (6.0%).
The Grizzlies landing the No. 11 overall pick would be nothing short of a miracle with all that has to happen for it to come true.
To put it into perspective: the team with the longest odds to win the No. 1 overall pick, the Cleveland Cavaliers, have a 0.5% chance to do so. No team with less than 1.4% odds has ever won the lottery.
I’m saying there’s a chance— a 0.4% chance, but there’s no way this pick will convey to the Grizzlies.