Here’s what media rights-focused NBA conference realignment looks like

If the NBA realigned conferences, would the Memphis Grizzlies get left behind?

What if the NBA decided to prioritize television ratings, media rights agreements, and totally realign the NBA conference landscape before the next collective bargaining talks begin? Would the Memphis Grizzlies get left behind?

There is a mutual opt-out of the current CBA after the 2022-23 season, or the deal will expire after the 2023-24 season, according to an old report from NBA Insider Adrian Wojnarowski.

To reiterate, this is totally hypothetical and not rooted in any report or intel— only an exercise in the haves and the have nots. Do you want to see how deep down the rabbit hole we can go?

The premise is simple: what if a handful of powerful NBA governors got together and decided to put to the teams in the biggest television markets under one conference umbrella and leave the rest to fend for themselves?

Why would they do this?

Typically, you get three to four games against conference opponents in the NBA. Imagine the top two markets, New York and Los Angeles, getting sixteen games against each other each year instead of the current eight (Knicks, Nets, Lakers, Clippers) if they were in the same conference and division.

This has reportedly been one of the main factors in college football realignment, which just recently saw USC and UCLA shift from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten conference, bolstering an already massive conference with a huge foothold in the No. 2 TV market in the country.

The NBA could do the same by putting more games in the bigger markets, which could lead to even bigger media rights fees and, ideally, larger profits for the league and its governors.

College teams are shifting conferences in the name of media rights, NFL teams don’t align to any sort of geographic restrictions (see: New York Giants in the NFC and the New York Jets in the AFC) and neither do MLB teams— so why should the NBA? Why not realign your teams to get the most bang for your media buck?

How would they do this?

If we base the conference realignment on 2021 Nielsen DMA Ratings, it would create a hypothetical conference with teams based in the top television markets.

You’d have the New York Knicks, Brooklyn Nets, LA Lakers, LA Clippers, Chicago Bulls, Philadelphia 76ers, Toronto Raptors, Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, Atlanta Hawks, Houston Rockets, Washington Wizards, Boston Celtics, Phoenix Suns, and Minnesota Timberwolves all in one conference— all residing in top-15 television markets in the United States.

(Note: I’m projecting with Toronto, as they aren’t included in Nielsen’s DMA rankings).

In the other conference, you’d have the Detroit Pistons, Denver Nuggets, Orlando Magic, Miami Heat, Cleveland Cavaliers, Sacramento Kings, Portland Trail Blazers, Charlotte Hornets, Indiana Pacers, Utah Jazz, San Antonio Spurs, Milwaukee Bucks, OKC Thunder, New Orleans Pelicans, and Memphis Grizzlies, which spans markets No. 16 through No. 51.

Heck, if you wanted to get really wild, this is where you can have your soccer-style promotion and relegation of teams. The worst “big-market” team gets demoted after the season to the “small-market” conference and the best team from the “small market” conference can move up and ideally get a larger share of revenue at the end of that season.

This could add extra incentive to keep teams from taking and increase competition and team loyalty.

Short-term results of NBA conference realignment

From a Memphis Grizzlies perspective, this would be a really intriguing alignment— at least in the near term. They would be in a conference that had just six total teams in the 2022 NBA playoffs, including themselves. As opposed to the “other” conference having 10 teams that made the playoffs last season (not including Play-In Tournament participants).

The Grizzlies would likely have significantly less eyeballs on their product and star player Ja Morant, but they would have a better shot a going deeper into the postseason in the near term. It would give a “smaller” market team a guaranteed shot at competing for a championship each season.

The Grizzlies would likely be competing against the Nuggets, Heat and Bucks for a chance to reach the NBA Finals during the playoffs if a magic wand were to be waved before next season to make this all happen.

Smaller market teams like the Pelicans, and one day the Pacers, would have a better shot at advancing without having to face a heavyweight contender like LA or Philly until the Finals.

The big-market teams will duke it out and the smaller guys would get a guaranteed seat at the table in the finals each year.

While this is admittedly beyond a far-fetched idea, it would be a way to freshen up a product that has not done anything transformative since the Seattle Supersonics moved to Oklahoma City and became the Thunder.

Maybe the proposed NBA in-season tournament can act as an incubator to test out radical new ideas that could reshape the balance of power and profit in the NBA.

Even if none of this comes to fruition or is even discussed, the Memphis Grizzlies probably don’t need any sort of realignment or expansion to happen to have a shot at competing for an NBA championship in the next few years.