Will Brandon Clarke sign a contract extension? It’s complicated.

Memphis Grizzlies standout Brandon Clarke just completed his third season in the NBA, which means he’s now eligible to sign his rookie contract extension to keep him in Memphis for the next several years.

The former Gonzaga product is entering his age 26 season after finishing 2021-22 averaging 10.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg, and 1.1 bpg in 19.5 minutes per game as a backup.

Grizzlies GM Zach Kleiman will surely want to try to lock Clarke into a team-friendly deal this offseason, so he’s not bidding against the free market next offseason.

Why Memphis Grizzlies forward Brandon Clarke may wait to sign extension 

Brandon Clarke may want to roll the dice, bet on himself and see if he can take another big step forward with Jaren Jackson Jr. set to be out of commission for the first few months of the 2022-23 season.

We’ve seen NBA players bet on themselves a few times in recent memory and let’s just say it’s a cautionary tale in how life can come at you rather quickly.

Remember when Dennis Schröder turned down a four-year, $84 million extension from the Los Angeles Lakers because he thought he was worth significantly more? He ended up playing terrible playoff basketball and interest in him cratered in the ensuing offseason. He had to take a one-year, $6 million deal with the Celtics instead.

And then there’s Deandre Ayton from the Phoenix Suns. He had big contract offers from the Suns last summer, but no max contract-level offers. He thought he was a max contract player, and he turned down the Suns’ lucrative offers. He ended up signing a max-contract offer sheet with the Indiana Pacers this offseason, to which the Suns almost immediately matched, awarding him a max contract that he thought he deserved. His gamble paid off, big time.

These are two extreme examples, but something Clarke has to consider when contemplating whether or not to sign an extension with Memphis.

The Grizzlies are probably going to offer him a reasonable deal before the start of the 2022-23 season. If he takes the deal, he’ll shed a ton of pressure for next season. He won’t have to worry about an injury or poor play hampering his value if he’s already signed on the dotted line.

Conversely, Clarke may think that he can boost his numbers and overall value next season, in which case he should not sign an extension this summer. He could leave money on the table if he were to sign a contract this summer and then go out and double his scoring and rebounding next season. It’s a logical thought process, especially since he’ll be counted on to fill a lot of the void left by Jackson.

If Jackson were fully healthy and Clarke didn’t have this massive opportunity in front of him, it would probably be a no-brainer to sign whatever offer the Memphis Grizzlies extend to him and his agent.

But Jackson’s injury creates an incredible opportunity for Brandon Clarke to boost his value and show the front office that he’s worthy of a significant financial investment.

Whatever happens, Clarke will soon be earning a lot more than $4.34 million he’s set to make next season.