Memphis Grizzlies: New model reveals strong chance to reach NBA Finals

A new model created by the famed forecasters at FiveThirtyEight have released how they believe each NBA team is projected to finish in the 2022-23 NBA season, including the Memphis Grizzlies.

The forecasters used a model that ran through 50,000 simulations and used their RAPTOR formula to create full-strength ratings, current-strength ratings, projected records and likelihood of reaching the Playoffs and winning the NBA Finals.

The RAPTOR formula is talent estimator of a player based on the trajectory of similar players throughout NBA history. For example, the RAPTOR formula created a projection for Ja Morant based on players who have had similar statistical seasons and similar growth. They’ve compared him to 2012 Derrick Rose, 2014 John Wall and 2016 Kyrie Irving.

Using their model and projections, they have forecasted the Memphis Grizzlies to finish the 2022-23 NBA season with a record of 52-30. They trail only the Boston Celtics (57-25) and the Denver Nuggets (54-28) for best overall record in the NBA.

Memphis Grizzlies have third-best chance to reach 2023 NBA Finals

FiveThirtyEight’s model gives the Grizzlies an astounding 94% chance to the make the playoffs and expects them to contend for an NBA Championship this season. This, despite being without starter Jaren Jackson Jr. and hopeful contributor Danny Green to start the season.

In fact, the model is extremely bullish on the Grizzlies, giving them an 18% chance to make the NBA Finals this season, which is the third-highest likelihood of any NBA team. They trail only the Celtics, who top out with a 33% chance and the Nuggets, who are forecasted to have at 25% chance to make the Finals.

On reasons why the model likes the Grizzlies so much is because they deploy so many net-positive players in their lineups.

"The Grizzlies have a league-high 10 rotation players projected as net-positives in total RAPTOR (though one of those is Danny Green, who may not play at all this season). Even without him, though, there’s a decent chance that the Grizz do not give rotation minutes to a single player who projects as a net-negative."

If this model is accurate, the likely Conference Finals matchups would be Denver vs Memphis and Boston vs Philadelphia with the winners facing each other in the NBA Finals.

However, the forecasters note that this year there is more parity than ever in the league, with a record 11 NBA teams currently tagged with a 5% chance or better or win the 2023 NBA Finals. That’s the most teams with a chance to win the finals since this model was created in 2015. And, as Philadelphia General Manager Daryl Morey once said, when you have a chance, you’ve got to go all-in.

Will the Memphis Grizzlies be able to emerge from a crowded field and be a contender for a championship this season?