Pelicans vs. Grizzlies prediction and odds for Saturday, December 31 (Expect plenty of points)

Ja Morant and the Memphis Grizzlies have a marquee matchup on New Year’s Eve, as they host Zion Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans on Saturday night.

Morant and Williamson were the two top picks in the 2019 NBA Draft, and they have both blossomed into All-Stars early in their careers.

The Pelicans have the No. 1 spot in the Western Conference entering this game, beating the Philadelphia 76ers on Friday night for their fifth consecutive victory. It’s an impressive streak, especially since the Pels have been without Brandon Ingram (toe) since Nov. 28.

Memphis is still just 1.5 games behind the Pelicans, and it is one of the best home teams in the NBA this season, going 9-4-1 against the spread as home favorites and 13-3 straight up at home.

This is the fifth time this season the Pelicans are playing a back-to-back, and they’ve gone 2-2 against the spread in the second leg of them so far this season.

Does that give Memphis an advantage, especially if Larry Nance and Ingram miss this game?

Let’s dive into the odds and a best bet for this Western Conference showdown:

Pelicans vs. Grizzlies odds, spread and total

Pelicans vs. Grizzlies prediction and pick

Memphis has been dominant at home, so I understand oddsmakers placing them as six-point favorites against a less-than-100-percent Pelicans team, but I’d rather look to the total for my best bet in this game.

The Pels have been too hot (winners of five straight) for me to lay six points with Memphis, but there are a couple trends that lead me to the OVER in this matchup.

Let’s start with the pace of play for both teams, because we should see a ton of possessions in this game.

Memphis ranks 10th in the league in pace, one spot above New Orleans (11th). The Pelicans are third in the league in points per game, and the Grizzlies come in at ninth, with that number jumping to sixth when they are at home.

The Grizzlies usually see pretty high totals in their games, which has led them to being a more profitable UNDER team this season, but I think they go over here given New Orleans’ profile.

The Pelicans are 21-14 on OVERs this season, and they’ve hit the over in three of their four games that were a second leg of a back-to-back this season.

Not only that, but the Pelicans have cleared this number in five of their last six games.

These teams have matched up two times already this season, combining for 215 and 243 points in those games. However, Williamson didn’t play in the game that finished with 215 combined points.

The Pels may have some tired legs, and Memphis has been an elite scoring team at home. Let’s root for points in this Western Conference showdown.

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.