Grizzlies vs. Lakers series preview: Memphis gets its moment

The Grizzlies have done a lot of talking over the past two seasons. Ja Morant’s spur-of-the-moment catchphrases have entered Memphis lore from, “We climb up the chimney,” to, “It’s a parade inside my city, yeah.” Other more assertive Grizzlies banter, from Dillon Brooks’ beef with Draymond Green to Morant’s “I’m fine in the West” comment have been heavily scrutinized by national media, to the point where Memphis went from loveable underdog to hated villain in a matter of months.

Contrary to what most pundits would have you believe, the Grizzlies actually have accomplished something on the court. They bounced Golden State to reach the playoffs in 2021, earned the second-best record and won a playoff series in 2022, and now once again secured the Western Conference two-seed despite a myriad of injuries and off-court drama in 2023. Along the way, Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. ascended to All-Star status, with Desmond Bane not far behind.

That’s quite a resume for the fifth-youngest team in the NBA.

But when the Grizzlies have truly had moments to level up to NBA elite status, they have largely fallen short. Last year’s series with Golden State proved the Grizzlies could hang with the elite but not execute when it mattered most. In showcase games at the Warriors on Christmas Day and at the Lakers in January, the Grizzlies fell flat against wounded opponents and lost those games as heavy favorites.

Now, the Grizzlies get their biggest shot yet to announce they have arrived. A first-round series with LeBron James and the Lakers. The Grizzlies might have a two next to their name and the Lakers a seven, yet this feels like a matchup between two of the best in the West. Since the trade deadline, these two teams actually have been the best in the West. The Lakers 16-7 record was tops in the conference, with Memphis tied for second with Sacramento at 16-9.

Regardless of what happens the rest of the playoffs, winning this series proves Memphis belongs. It would, at least temporarily, quiet Memphis’ many doubters in the national media. Eliminating LeBron would further cement the Grizzlies status as chief villains of the sport.

The Grizzlies won’t be scared of the moment. But are they ready for it? Can they overcome the clutch-time struggles that reared their ugly head in last season’s Golden State series and again in some of the Grizzlies’ biggest games of this regular season? Coming up are the keys that will swing the series. We’ll start with the obvious and work our way down to the subtler points.

1) Jaren Jackson Jr. and Dillon Brooks staying out of foul trouble

The most common concern for Grizzlies fans in this series is Jackson Jr. staying on the court. It’s obvious because it’s true. Jaren Jackson Jr. is Memphis’ most important player. Since the All-Star break, he’s also been the Grizzlies’ best player. In addition to his Defensive Player of the Year performance, he’s averaging 21.6 points on 51.2% shooting since the All-Star break. Yet he’s also averaging four fouls per game in that same span. He played 30.4 minutes per game, but he will need to reach 36-40 minutes per game in the playoffs.

The Grizzlies sacrificed some of their frontcourt depth for three-point shooting this offseason and then lost even more with Steven Adams’ and Brandon Clarke’s injuries. They need Jackson on the court.

But they need Brooks, too. He will be the primary LeBron James defender. He’s really the only player the Grizzlies should be comfortable with on James. Desmond Bane could take that assignment, but his focus should be on scoring. He may be too small to guard James in isolation anyway.

Brooks held James to 8-21 shooting in their only meeting this season. Brooks attributed that to forcing LeBron to go left all game, resulting in him settling for jumpers or passing it. CBS Sports’ Sam Quinn pointed out that LeBron still attempted his normal shot volume in the paint, but Brooks’ defense clearly slowed the NBA’s all-time leading scorer.

If Brooks can do that all series, the Grizzlies will win comfortably. But he can’t defend LeBron from the bench.

2) Three-point shooting

Neither of these teams’ three-point shooting numbers look pretty. The Grizzlies rank 16th in threes per game and 23rd in three-point percentage. The Lakers rank 24th in makes per game and 25th in percentage.

But if you run the numbers since the trade deadline, it’s a different story. The Grizzlies are seventh in threes per game since adding NBA three-point percentage leader Luke Kennard. The Lakers sit at 19th since retooling their roster with Malik Beasley, D’Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura, and Jarred Vanderbilt. Whichever team can better continue this three-point shooting resurgence in the playoffs will likely win the series.

Both of these teams give up a lot of threes made, probably because that’s what they are willing to surrender. Lakers’ opponents attempted the sixth most threes per game. Grizzlies’ opponents shot the fourth most threes. Interestingly, both teams held their opponents to fairly low percentages. Grizzlies’ opponents made 35.5% from beyond the arc, the ninth-lowest mark in the league. Lakers opponents shot just 34.4% from three, second in the league.

The Lakers and Grizzlies each have a fearsome rim protector in Anthony Davis and Jaren Jackson Jr., respectively. They each prioritize closing off the paint. That means there will be plenty of open looks from three. The Grizzlies should have the two best shooters in this series with Desmond Bane and Luke Kennard. The question is everybody else. Can Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks, Jaren Jackson Jr., and the bench knock down enough of the threes the Lakers want them to take?

On the other side, Malik Beasley and D’Angelo Russell are going to hit some threes. If LeBron James, Austin Reeves, Troy Brown, and company are too, that could spell doom for the Grizzlies defense.

3) Lakers offensive rebounding

The biggest weakness of the Grizzlies defense is no secret. Without Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke, the Grizzlies struggle to secure defensive rebounds.

The Lakers are not an elite offensive rebounding team, ranking 18th in offensive boards per game. But they have an elite offensive rebounder. Anthony Davis is second in the league with 3.5 offensive rebounds per game (shoutout to Steven Adams for standing head and shoulders above the field at 5.1 rebounds per game (We miss you, Steve-O). Against the Grizzlies, Davis has been even more active on the boards, securing five offensive boards a game. If Davis eats on the offensive glass throughout this series, the Grizzlies are in danger.

Though Kenny Lofton will surely see some minutes, Memphis is counting on Jaren Jackson Jr., Xavier Tillman, and Santi Aldama in the frontcourt. All three are below-average defensive rebounders for their position, according to Cleaning the Glass. The Grizzlies will have to emphasize all five players crashing the defensive glass, perhaps even at the expense of getting out in transition.

This brings us to…

4) Memphis points in transition

The Grizzlies get out in transition more than any other NBA team. They run off turnovers, they run off misses, and sometimes they even take the ball out of the basket and run off makes.

The Lakers allow the tenth most transition opportunities. They are particularly bad at getting back after their own misses. Dumping off Russell Westbrook, notoriously poor at getting back on defense, hasn’t even helped. They’ve actually given up more transition opportunities since the trade deadline, while their season hung in the balance.

Though the Grizzlies must prioritize pulling down defensive rebounds, that can’t stop them from taking advantage of the Lakers’ weakness in transition. Ja Morant should push the pace at every opportunity. He grabbed eight rebounds per game in last year’s playoffs. I expect that number might grow even higher this season. Memphis will likely try to run off almost every one of Morant’s boards.

5) Lakers perimeter defense vs. Grizzlies backcourt

The Lakers might have the two best players in the series. The Grizzlies clearly have the two best guards, though, and it’s not particularly close. Ja Morant and Desmond Bane are each positioned to have a big series. The Lakers primary backcourt rotation of D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, and Dennis Schroeder quite simply do not have the goods to lock up both Morant and Bane.

The evolution of Desmond Bane into “Downhill Des” makes the Grizzlies even harder to guard.

Bane is just as comfortable getting to the basket as he is pulling up for threes. He’s also an excellent passer at this point, ranking in the 95th percentile for assist percentage at shooting guard. His ability to both stretch bigger defenders like Jerrod Vanderbilt far beyond the three-point line and get buckets around the rim against smaller defenders like Schroeder and Russell should really stress the Lakers perimeter defense.

As good as it looks for Bane, this matchup looks even more promising for Ja Morant. He averaged 30.5 points per game against the Lakers this season despite going just 1-11 from three. Morant’s 28 points in the third quarter of Memphis’ lone win over the Lakers was the most scored by any player in a quarter this season. That scoring explosion is hopefully a harbinger of how Morant will relentlessly attack this Lakers defense throughout the series.

Anthony Davis and LeBron James will get theirs. Davis will particularly feast on the offensive boards. But Bane and Morant should combine for plenty of offense themselves to negate the perceived star advantage in LA’s favor.

Final thoughts and prediction

Vegas rates this as the closest first-round series. Many media members, perhaps most, will pick the Lakers to “upset” the two-seed Grizzlies. That means Memphis is back in the position it’s most comfortable with: the underdog.

Put Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke on the court, and this series might end in five. Even without those players, the Grizzlies are still the better team overall. They must rise to the playoff occasion, however, in a way they could not last season.

Both teams will likely struggle to win on the road in this matchup. Ultimately, I trust the Grizzlies to sustain their intensity – and health – better over the course of a grueling series.

Prediction: Grizzlies in seven.