Lakers vs. Grizzlies prediction and odds for Game 1 (Memphis strikes first)
By Reed Wallach
The No. 2 seed Memphis Grizzlies playoff run starts at home on Sunday against the No. 7 seed Los Angeles Lakers.
The Grizzlies and Lakers had a hotly contested regular season series that the Lakers won 2-1, each home team won, and this is the projected closest series by oddsmakers as Memphis is a slight favorite to advance.
You can check out our series preview here, but this is going to focus on Game 1 and how the Grizzlies will look to hold serve at home, where they bolster the best record in the league this season.
Here are the odds and our best bet:
Lakers vs. Grizzlies odds, spread and total
Lakers vs. Grizzlies prediction and pick
I give a big edge to the Grizzlies in the opening game of this series, most notably due to the team’s aforementioned home record (35-6 at FedEx Forum) and LeBron James’ historical struggles on the road in Game 1. The all-time scoring leader is 3-14 straight up on the road in Game 1’s.
On the floor, the Grizzlies transition offense is going to be tough for the Lakers to deal with. Since the All-Star break, shortly after the team acquired Luke Kennard, the team has been torching teams in the open floor, scoring at a top 10 rate in transition at the highest rate in the league, per Cleaning the Glass. The Lakers try to force the issue on the glass and leverage its size, but it lends itself to getting gashed on the other end, bottom 10 in transition frequency allowed since the All-Star break.
While the Lakers are going to try to slow this game down, Memphis still has the edge in the half court. The team is scoring at a league average rate per play while the Lakers are 20th in that same metric, per CtG.
It’s going to take some adjusting for the Lakers to the open court brilliance of Ja Morant. While the Lakers are going to look to impose their will physically and try to get to the line (the team leads the league in free throw rate), I believe that Memphis rolls at home behind its home crowd.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.