We have arrived at the unofficial "start" of the NBA season. The league continues to try to make the NBA Cup a thing (to mixed results), but traditionally, Christmas is the time the NBA takes center stage in the American sports consciousness. Football season is slowing down, winter is here, and basketball's time is now.
For the Memphis Grizzlies, that means a moment to reflect.
The team does not play again until Dec. 26, so as the Christmas holiday approaches, its work to establish who it is before the national slate of NBA games is complete. At 14-16, Memphis is firmly in the Western Conference play-in mix — but it's closer to out of the postseason race than to being a playoff team.
So what should be made of the Grizzlies at this stage of the 2025-26 NBA season?
Have the Memphis Grizzlies underachieved to this point in the 2025-26 season?
In a word? No.
Context matters, and the 14-16 Grizzlies have not had two of their three most meaningful contributors for the majority of the campaign. Ja Morant has only played in 14 games, and even during games in which he has played, he has put up some of the worst offensive numbers of his NBA career. Even if you are not a believer in Morant any longer, removing him (and most other point guards on the roster) due to injury has undoubtedly impacted Memphis.
In terms of both tangible data and the eye test, the absence of Zach Edey has mattered far more. The "Big Mane" has been one of the most impactful players in the NBA so far this season, but unfortunately, it has been in far too small a sample size. The 7-foot-5, 290-pound Edey is a mismatch on both the offensive and defensive ends of the court, and the system of Grizzlies head coach Tuomas Iisalo has unlocked that potential far more than that of former head coach Taylor Jenkins.
Edey was almost an afterthought in the schemes of Jenkins. He now appears to be the most significant Grizzlies player moving forward...and he has only logged 11 out of 30 games.
That's not to mention the lack of Ty Jerome, Scotty Pippen Jr., and Brandon Clarke — three projected rotational players who have all missed most (or all) of the season so far.
So while losing more than you win is always cause for concern, when approximately 50% of your possible contributors miss that much time, you have to grade on a curve. Memphis has hung tough and has a chance to make a run.
On the flip side, which Grizzlies have overachieved?
Cam Spencer has emerged as a possible "best value in the NBA" kind of player. He's among the league's most efficient offensive wings while making less money over the next four seasons than former Grizzlies wing Luke Kennard is making this season alone.
Vince Williams Jr. has bounced back nicely from a tough 2024-25, showing layers to his game as a creator of offense that he had not displayed to this extent. And rookie Cedric Coward is already a player who impacts winning, making plays on both ends of the court that create opportunities Memphis would not have had without him.
Who needs to step up in Memphis?
It is hard to hold health against a player, but Ja Morant's lack of availability remains a problem for the Grizzlies. And while Jaren Jackson Jr. was named Western Conference Player of the Week for his recent run of success, the body of the season has largely been a disappointment. His -8.4 efficiency differential is the worst on the team among players who have logged at least 200 minutes.
Morant and Jackson nearly make a combined $75 million this season. Couple that with Santi Aldama, who is pairing a career-best offensive run with a career-worst defensive effort, and you have roughly $94 million in salary all posting negative efficiency differentials, per Cleaning the Glass.
In the NBA, the amount of cap you command isn't just about generational wealth for the player. It's a mark of what the team feels you are capable of contributing to the success of the franchise. That has not come to fruition consistently enough with these three — especially Aldama and Jackson, who have been on the floor for most of the season.
Jackson overall and Santi defensively need to improve — and fast. Otherwise, as trade season approaches, Memphis will be a seller ahead of another down year as opposed to trying to buy and push for an eventual postseason run.