The Emirates NBA Cup remains highly competitive in its second season. The reigning champions and runner-up from last year's in-season tournament, the Los Angeles Lakers and Indiana Pacers, are already eliminated from advancing past the group stage to the eight-team Knockout Round.
All hope seemed lost for the Memphis Grizzlies after falling down 0-2 in their group stage with losses to the Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets. However, after defeating the New Orleans Pelicans last Friday night for their first cup win since it began last season, the Grizzlies find themselves with a glimmer of hope on the final night of group play games.
With a matchup at the Dallas Mavericks on the horizon tonight for a chance to advance to the Knockout Round bracket, here are the scenarios for the Grizzlies to advance.
"Just Win, Baby" - Al Davis
The late great Al Davis had a simple quote after the Los Angeles Raiders' Super Bowl XVIII victory in 1984, and it has remained a staple in the sports industry since. The Grizzlies need other things that need to happen outside of beating the Mavericks tonight but none of it matters if they don't actually win the game.
The Mavericks are 2-1 and the Grizzlies 1-2 in their group stage. Defeating the Mavericks will make both teams 2-2 but give the Grizzlies the tiebreaker due to the head-to-head win, which is the first tiebreaker.
Denver Nuggets loss
Memphis is tied with the Denver Nuggets with a 1-2 record but lost to them in their first NBA Cup game meaning that Denver currently holds the tiebreaker over them. A Denver Nuggets loss at home to the Group C winner, the Golden State Warriors, would trigger the tiebreaker scenario above with the Grizzlies and Mavericks.
A Nuggets victory tonight wouldn't end the Grizzlies hopes as it would trigger a three-way tie for second place in Group C. However, since all teams would beat each other in this scenario (Mavericks defeated the Nuggets), the next tiebreaker would be point differential.
The Mavericks have a +41 point differential, the Grizzlies have a -6, and the Nuggets have a +2. This would mean that the Grizzlies would need to beat the Mavericks by at least 25 points on the road and hope the Nuggets win by a small margin (one-possession game) even to have a shot at winning that tiebreaker scenario.
Loses by Thunder and Trail Blazers
If all is well and the Grizzlies win any of the above tiebreaker scenarios to finish second place in Group C, they would need help from others in Group A and Group B to win another tiebreaker to advance as the one Wild Card team from the Western Conference. The Oklahoma City Thunder and Portland Trail Blazers will need to lose their games vs the Utah Jazz and at the Los Angeles Clippers, respectively.
The Grizzlies would then have to win another point differential tiebreaker between them, the loser of the San Antonio Spurs and Phoenix Suns game, the Los Angeles Clippers, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Portland Trail Blazers as all teams would have a 2-2 record.
Crazier things have happened, and though it seems like a long shot for the Grizzlies to advance to the Knockout Round, there is a chance. First, they have to win, which is the only thing that is in their control.