The Grizzlies' continued trend of losing to good teams and winning against bad ones feels like a never-ending cycle throughout 2025. However, a noticeable difference at the start of their 4-7 run in the 2025-26 season is the inconsistency of Ja Morant in their wins and losses.
He has played 10 out of their first 11 games, and is shooting a career-low field goal percentage (35.8%), three-point percentage (14.8%), two-point percentage (44.8%), and averaging his least amount of points since the 2020-21 season (19.2 points per game). Those numbers tell the story of a team being inconsistent due to their best player's worst start to a season, but the game-by-game breakdown digs deeper.
The Grizzlies only win when Ja shoots the ball well
In the Grizzlies' four wins this season, Morant is averaging 25.8 points per game on 47.9% shooting from the field, which is on par with his career averages. In their six losses in games he has played (suspended for their seventh loss), Morant is averaging 14.8 points per game on 27.3% shooting from the field.
While the Grizzlies' record of 4-0 against teams below .500 and 0-7 against teams with a .500 and above record is a very simplified way of explaining their start, the struggles of Morant coincide with it. After beginning the season scoring at least 23 points in three of their first five games (3-2 record), Morant has averaged 15 points on 27.6% shooting from the field and 10.7% shooting from three in his last five.
A noticeable difference in his game this season has been his reluctance to attack the rim as much, likely to preserve himself from the injuries he suffered in the past. In a question about his numbers going to the rim being down following their loss to the Thunder on November 9th, he mentioned that he's not getting foul calls.
The free-throw line is the one area Morant has excelled in through 10 games this season, as he leads the NBA in free-throw percentage among players with at least 50 attempts (94.9%). However, he ranks 28th in attempts per game (5.9), which is tied for the second-lowest of his career, and lowest since the 2021-21 season.
The law of averages seems to always even out as the season goes along, so nobody's pushing the panic button about Ja Morant's shooting percentages just yet. However, his career lows are a huge reason why the Grizzlies have struggled out of the gate, and they will need him to level out his productivity sooner rather than later to prevent their season from getting out of hand.