The Memphis Grizzlies entered their matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves on April 10th on a three-game winning streak and in control of their playoff destiny. However, after their eighth consecutive loss to a Western Conference opponent with a .500 and above record, they relinquished that control.
In their biggest two-game stretch of the season against the Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets on back-to-back nights, Memphis laid an egg in the third quarter. After leading by five points at halftime, Minnesota outscored Memphis 52-25 to take a 22-point lead into the fourth quarter before winning 141-125.
While the loss didn't drop the Grizzlies to eighth because of their tiebreaker over the Timberwolves, it made their chance of cracking the top six of the standings to avoid the play-in tournament a tough road ahead of their last two games of the regular season.
Memphis can only guarantee themselves the seventh seed
When Minnesota and Golden State lost their previous games, the Grizzlies had a prime opportunity to gain at least the fifth seed, maybe the fourth seed, with a little bit of help elsewhere. Now, they need the help to avoid the play-in tournament altogether again.
While they have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Minnesota Timberwolves due to their season series win in the series, the Grizzlies would be in trouble in a multi-team tiebreaker scenario, which feels likely if they defeat the Denver Nuggets on April 11th.
The one thing the Grizzlies can't afford is a loss to the Denver Nuggets, as that will virtually guarantee an eighth-seed finish without significant help.
Breaking down potential tiebreaker scenarios
Let's assume the Grizzlies win out and the other four teams they are in the middle of the race with win out, except games played against each other. Outside of Memphis and Denver playing, the Los Angeles Clippers and Golden State Warriors face off in the final game of the regular season.
Due to current records of the teams, the Grizzlies would face either a three-way tie with the Nuggets and Timberwolves or a five-way tie with all the previously mentioned teams, depending on the result of the Clippers and Warriors if everyone else wins out (assuming Grizzlies beat the Nuggets in this scenario).
A better win percentage in games against all teams wins the ranks of the tiebreakers and would give Minnesota the edge (5-2) over Denver (1-6) and Memphis (4-2), with Memphis coming in second place and Denver finishing last. This scenario would require the Clippers to defeat the Warriors, which would give the Grizzlies the sixth and final playoff spot to avoid the play-in.
However, if the Warriors defeat the Clippers it would trigger a five-team tie. The five teams would rank as below in this scenario:
1. Minnesota Timberwolves (9-5)
2. Los Angeles Clippers (8-6)
3. Golden State Warriors (7-8)
4. Memphis Grizzlies (5-8)
5. Denver Nuggets (5-9)
This scenario would give the Grizzlies a home play-in game as the seventh seed against the eighth-seeded Denver Nuggets. So, the Grizzlies' best-case scenario to avoid the play-in would be defeating the Nuggets and rooting for the Clippers to defeat the Warriors.