Grizzlies' tiebreaker scenarios in the final week of the NBA Season

Jan 20, 2025; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant (12) reacts toward Minnesota Timberwolves guard Mike Conley (10) during the second half at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
Jan 20, 2025; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant (12) reacts toward Minnesota Timberwolves guard Mike Conley (10) during the second half at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

A two-game winning was what the doctor ordered for the Memphis Grizzlies after defeating the Detroit Pistons on April 5th without Ja Morant in the lineup. Morant was a late scratch for the road game due to an illness that was reported as food poisoning roughly 15 minutes before game time.

However, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. combined to score 65 points, and Zach Edey grabbed a season-high and Grizzlies rookie record 21 rebounds to help the Grizzlies pull off their first victory over a team with a .500 and above record in two months.

While the game didn't help their standing due to victories by the Minnesota Timberwolves and Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis is giving themselves a chance to climb back up the standings.

Tiebreaker scenarios entering the final week of the regular season

Despite a 46-32 record, the Grizzlies' season has been disappointing considering where they once were just a little over a month ago. Their over/under win total was set at 46.5 before the season began, so Vegas was spot on for what their season has become, but the feelings aren't mutual.

A 10-14 record since returning from the All-Star break has Memphis sitting in the eight-seed spot after returning in the two-seed position. They are currently eighth due to a three-way that they lose based on total record between the teams they are tied with.

While they are only 1.5 games behind the three-seed Los Angeles Lakers with four games remaining, let's view their tiebreakers with all teams ahead of them that they can catch.

Tiebreaker win: Minnesota Timberwolves

The Grizzlies and Timberwolves have the same record with the same amount of games remaining in the regular season, including a final matchup at the FedExForum on April 10th. They have won the season series with a 2-0 lead and only one game remaining.

However, that matchup looms large because if they enter the game with the same record, Memphis can take a two-game lead over Minnesota with a victory. Otherwise, a loss would put them in a position where they would need Minnesota to lose a game to catch them.

Tiebreaker unresolved: Denver Nuggets

The Grizzlies and Nuggets are tied in their season series 1-1, with the last matchup taking place in Denver on April 11th. The Grizzlies have a prime opportunity to pass the Timberwolves and Nuggets on back-to-back nights to nearly ensure they can avoid the play-in tournament.

As of the morning of April 6th, the Nuggets are only one game ahead of the Grizzlies, meaning if that remains the case heading into their upcoming game, Memphis would catch Denver with a victory and the tiebreaker edge.

Tiebreaker losses: Los Angeles Lakers, Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Clippers

The Grizzlies have already lost the season series to all California teams, including the ones they are looking up to in the standings. They lost the season series to the Lakers and Warriors 3-1 and to the Clippers 3-0.

In multiple team tiebreaker scenarios, Memphis will almost certainly lose because of their record against all teams collectively. Similar to their current three-way tiebreaker loss to the Timberwolves and the Clippers, the odds are stacked against them in that scenario.

Schedule