As time passes, a Ja Morant trade seems like a matter of when rather than if. It is unrealistic to expect a similar return to the Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. trades, but it will still be important to maximize the return. However, the new NBA Draft lottery system could end up significantly hurting the return the Grizzlies would get in a potential Ja Morant trade.
The Grizzlies had attempted to trade Ja Morant before this year's trade deadline but did not end up reaching a deal. Morant did not appear in a game the rest of the season due to a left elbow UCL sprain suffered against the Atlanta Hawks in late January. Even with his diminishing trade value, it is still very likely that the Grizzlies will move on this summer and rebuild with a new core.
With this in mind, there is still a potentially huge plot twist that could impact the Ja Morant trade saga.
The new draft lottery format could weaken the Morant return
One of the recently discussed lottery formats, the "3-2-1" format, is expected to gain approval. Basically, what it means is that the teams with the fourth to tenth worst records in the NBA would each have an 8.1% chance at winning the #1 pick. What would the potential implications be in a Ja Morant deal?
Jake Fischer, in his latest intel, had some very interesting things to say about the lottery and the trade front (subscription required). As a part of the new lottery reform, there would be 16 separate drawings for the top-16 picks, which is more than half the league. Fischer had the following to say:
"That fact alone could make it harder to convince teams to surrender future first-rounders, since teams will naturally be eager to keep hold of picks that enable them take their chances in such enticing conditions." - Jake Fischer
While this intel was in the context of a potential Giannis Antetokounmpo trade, it does not bode well for the Grizzlies' efforts to trade Ja Morant. Fischer had previously mentioned during this playoff run that Morant could have a better trade market this summer than the last trade deadline. Even if this remains the case, the Grizzlies will still likely have to settle for a similar return to the Trae Young deal.
Any hope of getting a first-round pick back in a Ja Morant trade would very likely be eliminated once the new draft lottery system passes. At this point, in a perfect world, the Grizzlies will not have to attach a pick; however, the possibility of getting a first-round pick can almost certainly be eliminated.
A Ja Morant trade for the Grizzlies feels almost inevitable, but the new draft lottery could be a key factor that weakens any return the team gets.
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