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Grizzlies vs. Mavericks NBA expert prediction and odds for Tuesday, Jan. 9 (Target total)

By Reed Wallach

Dec 26, 2023; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Memphis Grizzlies guard Desmond Bane (22) dribbles
Dec 26, 2023; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Memphis Grizzlies guard Desmond Bane (22) dribbles / Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
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The Grizzlies' volatile season hit a breaking point on Monday night as it was announced that Ja Morant would miss the rest of the season with a shoulder injury.

Memphis, who was trying to recover from Morant's 25-game suspension, now will be without its star guard for the remainder of the season, leading to more pressure on emerging guard Desmond Bane to keep the team within striking distance of the postseason. The team is in Dallas on Tuesday to take on the Mavericks in the first game of the rest of the once again Ja Morant-less 2023-2024 season.

Can the Grizz bounce back, or will the team fall into another spiral? I'll break it down with my eyes on the total.

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Grizzlies vs. Mavericks odds, spread and total

Mavericks vs. Grizzlies betting trends

  • The Grizzlies are 15-21 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • The Mavericks are 21-16 ATS this season
  • The Grizzlies are 10-13 ATS as underdogs this season
  • The Mavericks are 15-8 ATS as favorites this season

Grizzlies vs. Mavericks how to watch

  • Date: Tuesday, January 9th
  • Game Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
  • Venue: American Airlines Center
  • How to Watch (TV): NBA TV
  • Grizzlies Record: 13-23
  • Mavericks Record: 22-15

Grizzlies vs. Mavericks injury reports

Grizzlies

  • Ja Morant - out
  • Santi Aldama - questionable

Mavericks

Dereck Lively II - out

Grizzlies vs. Mavericks key players to watch

Grizzlies

Desmond Bane: Bane's leap this season is being lost in the Morant suspension and now injury. The former TCU guard has been incredible stepping in as the lead man in Morant's place, averaging a career-high 24 points while playing to his career average of four rebounds and five assists. He is shooting 48% from the field (career best) while his three-point shooting remains elite, 38%.

Mavericks

Luka Doncic: Despite missing Friday's game against the Blazers, Doncic returned to the floor on Sunday against the Timberwolves, pouring in 34 points with six rebounds and eight assists. It's another monster season for Doncic, averaging nearly 34 points per game with eight rebounds and nine assists.

Grizzlies vs. Mavericks prediction and pick

The Grizzlies turned a corner with Morant, even when he was out of the lineup, beating the Suns on Sunday to keep to its winning ways. However, now that he has been ruled out for the season, will Memphis keep it up? I'm not willing to find out by taking the Grizz to cover the spread, but I do like the over as I believe the team may have unlocked its offense in recent weeks.

The team is fifth in three-point rate and will be without its best rim protector in Lively, meaning th eteam should be able to generate easier-than-expected looks at the rim while maintaining its diet of three-point shots. The Mavericks are 16th in defensive rating on the season, per NBA.com, and is slightly worse when Lively is off the floor, so this is a below-average unit taking the floor for Dallas.

Meanwhile, the Mavericks are tops in three-point rate and have one of the most dominant playmakers in the league in Doncic, who is enjoying a career year.

With plenty of perimeter shots, and Dallas set to be weaker on the defensive side of the ball, I'll go over in this Tuesday night affair.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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