Grizzlies vs. Nuggets NBA expert prediction and odds for Monday, March 25 (Can Grizzlies cover?)
By Peter Dewey
The Memphis Grizzlies find themselves as massive underdogs on Monday night against the Denver Nuggets, who are the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference after the Oklahoma City Thunder lost to the Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday.
Memphis has been solid as a road underdog this season, going 18-13 against the spread, but can the team hang around despite a ton of injuries against one of the best home teams in the NBA?
Denver is 28-6 straight up at Ball Arena, and the team would love a win today to get a full game lead over OKC in the standings.
With Desmond Bane listed as questionable, the Grizzlies could be forming a makeshift roster around Jaren Jackson Jr. once again tonight.
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Let’s break down the odds and my best bet for this Western Conference battle:
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets odds, spread and total
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets how to watch
- Date: Monday, March 25
- Time: 9:00 p.m. EST
- Venue: Ball Arena
- How to watch (TV): Bally Sports, Altitude
- Grizzlies record: 24-47
- Nuggets record: 50-21
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets injury report
Grizzlies injury report
- Desmond Bane – questionable
- Ja Morant – out
- Marcus Smart – out
- Brandon Clarke – doubtful
- Luke Kennard – out
- John Konchar – doubtful
- Jake LaRavia – questionable
- Derrick Rose – out
- Lamar Stevens – questionable
- Yuta Wantanabe – out
- Vince Williams Jr. – doubtful
- Ziaire Williams – out
Nuggets injury report
- Vlatko Cancar – out
- Jamal Murray – questionable
- Nikola Jokic – questionable
- Zeke Nnaji – out
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets key players to watch
Memphis Grizzlies
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Jackson has been great all season long for the Grizzlies, averaging 22.6 points and 5.5 rebounds per game as the de-facto No. 1 option for most of the season. Over his last three games, Jackson has scored 25, 28 and 28 points, leading Memphis to an upset win over the San Antonio Spurs in the process. Can he have a big game against Denver?
Denver Nuggets
Nikola Jokic: If he plays, Nikola Jokic is going to be a handful to deal with for Jackson and Trey Jemison down low. Jokic missed the team’s last game against Portland, but he dropped a 30-point, 14-rebound, 11-assist triple-double in his last game against the New York Knicks. Jokic had 26 points and a triple-double in just 29:58 of playing time in his last matchup against Memphis.
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets prediction and pick
A lot of this game will come down to the status of Jokic and Murray, but I’m willing to take a shot on Memphis – hoping that Bane (questionable) is able to suit up.
The Grizzlies have been solid as road underdogs this season (I mentioned their impressive ATS record above), and the Nuggets are less than perfect as a home favorite when it comes to covering the number.
Denver is 16-16-1 ATS as a home favorite this season, winning those games by an average margin of 9.5 points per game.
The Nuggets clearly have the talent to outclass Memphis, beating the team by 37 points in their last meeting, but if Bane plays, Memphis at least has the offensive talent to hang around between him, JJJ and GG Jackson II.
At this time of year, we’re going to see a lot of lopsided spreads between the non-playoff teams and the top seeds, but Denver has also shown a willingness to rest players with a playoff spot – and likely a top seed – locked up.
Don’t be shocked if the Grizz can hang within 15 points tonight.
Pick: Grizzlies +14.5 (-110)
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.