Underrated problem that could keep the Grizzlies in the lottery

The Memphis Grizzlies plan on being back in contention, but the Western Conference is loaded. Ja Morant is an elite talent, but his injury history could quickly create issues. They cannot afford to let any games slip. The race to finish in the top six will be tight and two strong franchises will be bounced in the Play-In Tournament.

It starts with better health across the board for Memphis. 33 players appeared in at least one game for the Grizzlies last season, which broke the NBA record. They need their core players to be healthy and producing to be competitive. Even then, Memphis may have a massive hole in their roster.

The Grizzlies are expected to start a rookie center. It makes Zach Edey the favorite to win Rookie of the Year, but first-year players often struggle to impact winning. Memphis does not have another desirable option. If Edey struggles, the franchise may be in for a second straight disappointment.

Center production could be the problem that keeps the Grizzlies in the lottery

Edey figures to start and play the bulk of the minutes at the five to begin the season. He is not the traditional NBA rookie. The 22-year-old played four years of college basketball at Purdue and twice won National Player of the Year. His age and experience may ease the transition, but Edey has some massive question marks.

The 7’4 big man dominated the paint in college, but how will he navigate switches and play on the perimeter in the NBA? Teams will draw Edey out of the middle. Can he hold his own defensively? Memphis is built on defense, so they cannot afford to have a weak link at the five.

There are also spacing questions in Memphis. Morant, Edey, Marcus Smart, and Jaren Jackson Jr. are all subpar 3-point shooters. Can the Grizzlies put enough shooting on the floor to have a top ten offense? They finished 11th in 2023 with Steven Adams at the five, but Smart was still in Boston. Edey won't shoot triples, and the lack of shooters around him could make scoring inside tricky.

Dereck Lively II just helped the Mavericks reach the NBA Finals in 2024 as a rookie, but most first-year big men struggle mightily. If Edey is not impacting winning, the Grizzlies may rack up enough losses to put them in the Play-In Tournament. The one-off nature of the games makes anything possible and failing to win puts Memphis back in the lottery.

The Grizzlies cannot play Jaren Jackson Jr. exclusively at the five, and Santi Aldama is the only other true center on their roster. The 6’11 big man played just 26.5 minutes per game last season when Memphis was scrambling for anyone to fill time. Fans cannot expect him to play more, which puts even more on Edey.

The Memphis Grizzlies may be looking for a midseason trade to upgrade at the five, but it may be too late. There is a ton riding on rookie Zach Edey’s play and impacting winning will not be easy. It is certainly something worth watching closely as the season kicks off.