There are no guarantees in real life and life in the NBA, but the Memphis Grizzlies have a 99.3% chance (according to ESPN) to make the NBA playoffs. As of March 13th, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Cleveland Cavaliers are the only NBA teams that have clinched a playoff spot and won 50 games this season.
With 16 games remaining and reclaiming a hold on the second seed in the Western Conference, thanks to a tiebreaker over the Denver Nuggets, the Memphis Grizzlies would have to suffer a colossal failure to miss the playoffs. After suffering their worst stretch of the season last week with a four-game winning streak they have rebounded with a four-game winning streak after another clutch win over the Utah Jazz on March 12th.
Due to the landscape of the Western Conference standings, the Grizzlies are likely to land a seed between the second to fifth range. The Thunder have 12 game lead over the Grizzlies and Nuggets for the one seed but the Grizzlies and Nuggets are only one game ahead of the fifth-seeded Houston Rockets and half-game ahead of the fourth-seeded Los Angeles Lakers.
Despite the season's stretch run that has the Grizzlies playing the sixth toughest remaining strength of schedule, coach Taylor Jenkins continues to play 11 players as evidenced in their win against the Jazz. However, with the playoffs looming he will need to decide on what his shortened playoff rotation will be when the game slows and strategy takes place on a game-by-game basis.
Predicting the starters
The Grizzlies' regular starting five consists of the big three of Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr. They are joined by two rookies, ninth overall pick Zach Edey and 39th overall pick Jaylen Wells. While starting two rookies isn't ideal, Jaylen Wells is their best perimeter defender and Zach Edey is the only true center and tallest player on the roster.
However, based on regular season minutes distribution Zach Edey averages the seventh-highest minutes on the team while the other four are the top four in minutes per game. Morant, Bane, and Jackson Jr. are the Grizzlies' best players so their playoff spots are solidified, but Edey could be a matchup-dependent player.
Wells' skillset as their most reliable three-and-D player will keep his minutes intact unless the moment feels too big for him in any given series. Also, depending on the opponent Zach Edey could be switched to coming off the bench as has been the case in eight of his 51 games played this season.
Predicting the bench unit
NBA teams typically go eight to nine players deep in the NBA playoffs, and the Grizzlies top eight seems to be a near guarantee. Santi Aldama has been the team's most productive bench player this season and is fifth on the team in minutes per game, including playing in closing lineups.
Brandon Clarke has been a playoff starter for the Grizzlies before and offers the defensive versatility the team needs in closing lineups. Luke Kennard is sixth on the team in minutes per game and is the best shooter on the team, so his spot is likely solidified despite his defensive liability.
With the top eight likely solidified the Grizzlies have several players that could be the ninth man, but all remaining players are playoff inexperienced. John Konchar (who is considered the 14th or 15 man) is the only player with playoff experience on the back of the Grizzlies' bench.
Despite the scenario of the Grizzlies playing three players that have no playoff experience (Wells and Edey included) Vince Williams Jr., Scotty Pippen Jr., GG Jackson, and Lamar Stevens will likely vie for that position. Williams Jr. and Pippen Jr. offer the defensive versatility that Luke Kennard lacks in the backcourt and offer additional playmaking.
GG Jackson can offer a scoring punch but his defensive liability will likely hinder him from playing time. However, his services could be needed in any given game and he offers additional size along with Lamar Stevens if Zach Edey is deemed unplayable at any point. Lamar Stevens offers the most veteran, get-the-job-done potential the Grizzlies have on the roster that could contend with anyone for additional playing time.