ESPN's Kevin Pelton created a stats-based simulation of the NBA season, and it was very kind to the Memphis Grizzlies. Most national analysts predict the Grizzlies to likely battle in the play-in tournament, just like last season. That stems from trading Desmond Bane this offseason and the depth of the Western Conference as a whole.
Also, Ja Morant's injury history doesn't do the Grizzlies any favors when it comes to predicting their season's outcome. However, ESPN's simulation gave the Grizzlies the kind of season that would mostly satisfy the fanbase, but it would end up giving them the same outcome as their last two playoff appearances.
Finishing with a top four seed is a win for Memphis
The random simulation (number 620) gave the Grizzlies the number four seed in the Western Conference behind only the Golden State Warriors, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Denver Nuggets. A first-round matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers would end the Grizzlies' season, which has been the case in three of their four playoff appearances in the Ja Morant era (2019-present).
ESPN's model has the Grizzlies losing game 1 at home, which has happened in all three of the series they have had homecourt advantage in since 2019. A noteworthy takeaway that would be different from a past result is the Grizzlies moving up to the four seed from the fifth seed at the All-Star break with an 18-10 finish.
Last season, the team finished the season 12-16 and in eighth place after heading into the All-Star break as the second seed in the West. However, another thing fans can be excited about is the Grizzlies' NBA Cup projection, which has them making it to the quarterfinals before losing at home to the Portland Trail Blazers.
Memphis has a 1-7 record in NBA Cup games since it began during the 2023-24 season, so making a quarterfinals appearance at home would mean they have to finish at least 3-1 in their group play games. While the good outweighs the bad for the Grizzlies in the simulation model when factoring in their outside expectations, the things they can't control aren't so pleasant.
The Grizzlies own pick swap rights to the Phoenix Suns' first-round pick next year, which is projected to be high lottery. However, the simulation had the Suns finishing ninth in the standings before losing their first play-in game to the Sacramento Kings. The simulated lottery order gave them the 13th selection instead of a top 10 or five selection.
Simulations are fun but everything didn't go in the Grizzlies direction. The games will be played on the court, so the team will have a change to take the things that did go their way a step further to ensure a great season for the team and fanbase.