What ESPN’s 2025-26 Projections quietly say about the Grizzlies’ ceiling

They are a sure-bet to be in the play-in tournament again.
Memphis Grizzlies v Miami Heat
Memphis Grizzlies v Miami Heat | Tomas Diniz Santos/GettyImages

The NBA officially kicks off tonight with the Grizzlies' West rivals clashing in a doubleheader. The teams that will play tonight include the Houston Rockets against the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Golden State Warriors against the Los Angeles Lakers. All of these teams are ranked in the top 10 of ESPN's power rankings to enter the season, an area the Grizzlies would like to climb to.

Memphis enters the season ranked 17th in ESPN's power rankings, including being the 10th-ranked team in the Western Conference. With the injuries that have been added to their roster entering the regular season, the Grizzlies will face a challenging road to surpass the general expectations that have been set by various outlets this summer.

Memphis is included in a class with familiar teams

The Grizzlies' division consists of the Rockets, Dallas Mavericks, San Antonio Spurs, and New Orleans Pelicans. While ESPN ranked the Rockets fifth in their power rankings, the Mavericks and Spurs ranked close to the Grizzlies at 13th and 16th, respectively.

Despite being ranked higher than Memphis, the projected win totals for both teams were lower than Memphis' 42.3%. Also, the Spurs only received a 7.1% chance to make the playoffs, while the Grizzlies received a 52.4% chance and the Mavericks received a 50.6% chance.

While the injuries to Zach Edey, Brandon Clarke, Scotty Pippen Jr., and Ty Jerome will be a lot to overcome in the first month of the season, Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. are slated to play their first season-opening game together since the 2021-22 season. Having those two players will always give them a chance to win.

While the trading of Desmond Bane has foreshadowed the other moves they made this offseason, the addition of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope should shore up their wing rotation that includes Jaylen Wells, Cedric Coward, and GG Jackson. The collection of youth mixed with veteran experience should make for an intriguing roster for a team looking to escape the purgatory stage they found themselves in following last season's disappointing end.

The Grizzlies' ceiling is unknown at the moment, and honestly, the early-season injuries are trending towards being reminiscent of their injury-riddled 2023-24 season. However, Ja Morant wasn't available to start that season, so the comparisons already stop there. The team will go as far as he can take them, but it has been proven that when he is healthy and on the court, the Grizzlies' ceiling can be one of the best in the West.

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