The national thought throughout the entire offseason was that the Memphis Grizzlies took a step back from contention with their trading of Desmond Bane. However, ESPN's Kevin Pelton disagrees with the betting odds and others who question the Grizzlies' ability to remain a playoff contender in the Western Conference.
The Sportsbooks' sites have the Grizzlies over/under set at a losing record, as ESPN BET has them at 40.5 and DraftKings and FanDuel have them set at 39.5. Since Ja Morant has entered the NBA, the Grizzlies have won at least 48 games in the three seasons that weren't shortened due to COVID-19, or he missed more than half of their games. While his and the other injuries they currently have likely factor into those projections, Kevin Pelton had a different feel for their projection heading into the 2025-26 season.
Memphis is projected to finish seventh in the West
Based on the various Sportsbooks' projections, the Grizzlies are expected to finish in the play-in tournament territory that would require them to win multiple games to clinch a playoff spot as an eighth seed. Pelton's projection model placed the Grizzlies' projected wins at 44.6, which guarantees they have a winning record and a shot at making the playoffs outright as a top-six seed.
Their third-place ranking in point differential in the West last season gave them an advantage despite the loss of Bane. The Grizzlies won 48 games last season with Ja Morant missing 32 games, so that obviously can't happen again without the firepower of their former starting shooting guard to take on the scoring load.
However, the addition of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Ty Jerome should sort out any shooting concerns left by the departure of their best shooters last season. Unfortunately, 48 games left the Grizzlies in the play-in tournament as the eighth seed last season, but Pelton's win projections only have four teams with more victories than that total.
The teams closest to the Grizzlies in his projection were the Los Angeles Lakers at six (45.8 projected wins) and the Minnesota Timberwolves at eight (43.7 projected wins). The Dallas Mavericks (43.6 projected wins) and the Sacramento Kings (43.5 projected wins) are other teams in his projection that are close to Memphis at nine and 10.
It is a relief to see someone finally see the vision of what the Grizzlies have remade their roster into for this season. The next step is for Memphis to prove it on the court, especially in matchups against other Western Conference contenders during the regular season.