March brings out the best in the NCAA basketball world when the stakes are at their highest with the NCAA Tournament selection. Most of the Memphis Grizzlies' active roster participated on the biggest stage on the collegiate level with Zach Edey advancing the furthest when his Purdue Boilermakers made it to the national championship game last season.
Including the two-way players, Cam Spencer had the most successful NCAA Tournament run with a national championship victory at UCONN last season over his fellow teammate. With the NCAA Tournament selection completed and games beginning this week, let's look at how the Grizzlies would fare if the NBA did the same format.
What seed would the Grizzlies have?
First, let's set how the selection process would work as the NBA schedule is different from a college schedule as all teams play each other. Also, 30 NBA teams are competing for the top eight seeds in two conferences in contrast to 300+ college teams competing for 68 spots from 31 different conferences.
So for this exercise, the NBA will be seeded one through 16 as a whole which is the equivalent of one region in the four regions of 16 teams the NCAA Tournament holds. As things stand with the standings at the end of the March 15th slate of game the Memphis Grizzlies would be seeded sixth with a tiebreaker loss to the Houston Rockets and Denver Nuggets.
Due to the NCAA's resume ranking system, the NBA order wouldn't be as simple as just ranking from one to 16, but if it was the ranking and matchups would look like this:
NBA March Madness-style tournament (with current record order) |
|---|
1 Cleveland Cavaliers (56-11) |
16 Dallas Mavericks (33-36) /Atlanta Hawks (32-35) |
8 Los Angeles Lakers (40-25) |
9 Golden State Warriors (39-28) |
5 Denver Nuggets (43-25) |
12 Indiana Pacers (37-29) |
4 Houston Rockets (43-25) |
13 Los Angeles Clippers (37-30) |
6 Memphis Grizzlies (43-25) |
11 Minnesota Timberwolves (39-29) |
3 Boston Celtics (49-19) |
14 Detroit Pistons (37-31) |
7 New York Knicks (42-24) |
10 Milwaukee Bucks (38-28) |
2 Oklahoma City Thunder (55-12) |
15 Sacramento Kings (33-33) |
The NCAA Tournament has four play-in games, including two sets of 16-seed play-in games, so the Dallas Mavericks and Atlanta Hawks got the play-in scenario for the 16-seed with the same winning percentage. Meanwhile, the Memphis Grizzlies would face off against Western Conference rival Minnesota Timberwolves for a chance to play either the Boston Celtics or Detroit Pistons in the second round.
The NCAA selection committee uses several metrics when ranking teams such as wins vs good teams and losses vs bad teams. If the NBA went that same route ranking teams the new order would look something like this:
NBA March Madness-style tournament (record vs .500 and above teams + record vs .500 and below teams percentage) |
|---|
1 Cleveland Cavaliers (1.64%) |
16 Sacremento Kings (0.97%) |
8 Memphis Grizzlies (1.21%) |
9 Golden State Warriors (1.17%) |
5 New York Knicks (1.238%) |
12 Los Angeles Clippers (1.10%) |
4 Houston Rockets (1.27%) |
13 Milwaukee Bucks (1.09%) |
6 Denver Nuggets (1.234%) |
11 Indiana Pacers (1.11%) |
3 Boston Celtics (1.43%) |
14 Detroit Pistons (1.04%) |
7 Los Angeles Lakers (1.22%) |
10 Minnesota Timberwolves (1.15%) |
2 Oklahoma City Thunder (1.58%) |
15 Dallas Mavericks (0.98%) |
In this scenario, the Memphis Grizzlies would fall to an eighth seed with a matchup against another conference rival the Golden State Warriors. The Grizzlies' 12-19 record vs .500 and above teams knocked them below the New York Knicks and Los Angeles Lakers.
While the Knicks (13-17) and Denver Nuggets (14-17) also have losing records versus teams .500 and above, their total average win percentage against those teams plus teams with a .500 and below record ranked slightly higher than the Grizzlies. The Grizzlies would have the tougher draw with a matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers on the horizon if they defeated the red-hot Warriors in the first round.