2012 NBA Draft: Is Jared Sullinger Still A First-Rounder?

Of the many buzz words thrown around during the weeks leading up to the NBA Draft a “red flag,” is probably one of the most important.

A red flag can be anything from character concerns, shaky performances against elite competition and especially injuries.

Jared Sullinger has become quite familiar with the injury flag in the past week. Sullinger was diagnosed with a back condition that has a number of NBA teams a little nervous about drafting him in the first round of the 2012 NBA Draft on Thursday evening.

Sullinger just finished his sophomore season at Ohio State and averaged a double-double as one of the best college players in the nation. At this time last year, Sullinger was seen as one of the best prospects had he left Ohio State and declared for the draft, but with the lockout looming and some concerns about his size, Sullinger returned to school for his sophomore season. Sullinger’s numbers took a small dip, but was still seen as a lottery pick until his back condition was discovered.

Now most are ruling out Sullinger as a lottery pick, and some won’t even think about him in the first round.

First of all, that’s ridiculous to me. This guy is a proven player who dominated the Big Ten for two solid years and did so with the same back condition that he has now (we assume.) So maybe he’s not an athletic freak like Anthony Davis or John Wall, but he’s still a good player that can score in the low post and rebound the ball. You can have your projects and upside picks if you want them, but I’ll take the guy that has shown he can play well in one of the NCAA’s top basketball leagues.

I know that the Big Ten isn’t the NBA, but it’s no huge revelation that guys who perform well in college end up performing well in the NBA. Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony, Derrick Rose and Blake Griffin were all transcendent talents in college and have become All-Star caliber players. It wasn’t a given in Sullinger’s case, but aren’t the odds higher for a guy who put up a double-double regularly? Without question.

If you’ve read our other two draft features here at Beale Street Bears, then you may be familiar with my “best-case/worst-case scenario” gimmick where I look and see where a guy will go and flourish, where he’ll go to die and what will likely happen.

The other two features (Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and our draft rumor round-up) were pretty bland and easy to predict. Sullinger, however, was captivating. If he slides out of the lottery, he gives playoff teams a ton of flexibility going forward.

Best-case scenario: Sullinger does indeed fall out of the lottery, all the way to the Memphis Grizzlies, Chicago Bulls or Philadelphia 76ers.

If Sullinger falls to the Grizzlies, then the Grizzlies could allow Darrell Arthur and Marreese Speights to leave and still have a guy coming off of the bench that scores better than Speights and rebounds better than Arthur. He’d really become the best possible mixture of the two.

Going further, the Grizzlies could even shop around Zach Randolph if they wanted to. I brought this idea up a few weeks ago and was ridiculed, but Randolph isn’t going to peak again at this point in his career. Rudy Gay has been involved in seemingly every trade rumors this 0ff-season and he certainly has the most trade value, but if you can have Sullinger and Arthur or Speights on the same team, Randolph becomes a bit of an expensive luxury. That would keep the Grizzlies’ window open for the foreseeable future, as well as under the cap.

If the Chicago Bulls were to draft Jared Sullinger somehow, their very next move would almost definitely be to amnesty Carlos Boozer. They actually may announce both moves at the draft. “With the 29th pick in the 2012 NBA Draft, the Chicago Bulls select Jared Sullinger, Ohio State University. Also, they’d like to announce that Carlos Boozer is officially a free agent.”

Sounds ridiculous? Maybe it is, but Sullinger would render Boozer expendable and give the Bulls some cheap options in the front court, something much needed for a team that’s right against the luxury tax threshold.

The Grizzlies and Bulls are unlikely to draft Sullinger with their own first-round pick as they’re picking very late in the first round, but Philadelphia is picking right in the middle of the first-round, also have an aging, expensive power forward on their roster (Elton Brand) and could use an influx of young talent up front. Even if they kept Brand another year, they could allow Spencer Hawes to leave and give his minutes to Sullinger and Lavoy Allen. If they did amnesty Brand, that’s even better as they would even open up some cap space to sign a decent free agent.

All in all, I endorse Sullinger going to any playoff team to begin his career. Too many times young guys are thrust into a bad situation and too much is expected of them and they can’t possibly live up to those expectations. If Sullinger goes to a good team right out of the gate, he can learn the game, not be leaned on too heavily and get a healthy dose of a winning attitude as opposed to the stench and pain of defeat.

Worst-case scenario: Phoenix Suns.

The Suns have the potential to become a real dumpster fire if Steve Nash were to leave town this summer. If he signs elsewhere, the Suns could become Charlotte Bobcats-level bad. That’s not even a total exaggeration as Grant Hill and Michael Redd are also free agents and was Phoenix’s third and fourth-best players last season.

Marcin Gortat would remain and while he’s been awesome in his time in Phoenix, he can’t carry a team on his own and neither can Sullinger. I’m afraid that he could be counted on for too much, too soon. I know every lottery team is bad, but the Suns without Nash is terrifying.

What will happen: Sullinger is selected by the Denver Nuggets, 20th overall.

Way closer to the best-case scenario than the worst-case. Denver took the Lakers to 7 games  and has an exciting young team. They drafted Kenneth Faried last season, but they don’t know if they’re going to keep Javale McGee around past this season. If he leaves, Sullinger could help them fill in the gap in the middle.