The Memphis Grizzlies led most of their game against the Denver Nuggets on April 11th but failed to secure the victory after surrendering a 14-1 run in the game's final six minutes to lose 117-109. The loss and a Golden State Warriors victory over the Portland Trail Blazers locked the Grizzlies into the Western Conference's play-in tournament.
They are currently the eighth seed with a slim chance at jumping up to seven, but that will require a victory over the Dallas Mavericks in the regular season finale and a loss by the Minnesota Timberwolves to the Utah Jazz. Anything is possible, but the likelihood is the Grizzlies sealed their fate for a road play-in game at either Minnesota, Golden State, the Los Angeles Clippers, or Denver Nuggets.
The winner of the first play-in game will play the two-seeded Houston Rockets, while the loser will play the winner of the ninth and 10th seeded Dallas Mavericks and Sacramento Kings play-in game for a chance to play the one-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder.
Who are the Grizzlies likely to play?
The Minnesota Timberwolves currently hold the seventh-seed play-in position because they lose the tiebreaker to the sixth-seeded Golden State Warriors. However, due to the quality of opponents in their final games and tiebreaker scenarios, Memphis is likely to face the Golden State Warriors, although any of four possible teams could fall to that position.
The Warriors play the Los Angeles Clippers, a team they haven't beaten this season (0-3) at home to end the regular season. Assuming the Denver Nuggets defeat the resting Houston Rockets and Minnesota defeats the tanking Utah Jazz, the Warriors face a lose-lose scenario.
A win over the Clippers would trigger a three-way tie, which the Warriors would lose with the lowest win percentage between them, the Clippers, and Timberwolves. A loss to the Clippers would place them a game behind both teams while tied with Memphis (assuming they beat Dallas), whom they win the tiebreaker over to host the play-in game.
How did the Grizzlies fare against all possible opponents
The Grizzlies had a combined record of 4-9 against their four possible opponents and a 1-3 record against their likely opponent this season. Since defeating Minnesota on January 20th, Memphis has an 0-5 record against the same teams, including losing four of those games to each opponent since March 21st.
The Grizzlies' free fall during the second half of the season is one of the worst in NBA history, considering they were the two-seed at the NBA All-Star break. A 14-25 record tells the story of how the Grizzlies fell from two to eight in two months, including a 0-9 record against the West's top eight since their January 30th victory over the Houston Rockets.