Given how few games Jaren Jackson Jr. played in Utah after being traded and the fact none of the picks have been used by the Grizzlies yet, it still remains too early to judge the trade. Unfortunately for the Grizzlies, they could end up suffering a potentially huge loss in the trade if the new set of NBA Draft lottery rules gets approved.
The Grizzlies should already feel good about the fact that they have significant draft capital over the next seven seasons. There will be plenty of opportunities to draft high-level talent or trade picks for proven players as they get further along in their rebuild. Despite how many assets the Grizzlies have, the return for Jaren Jackson Jr. could end up suffering significantly during the 2027 NBA Draft.
This specific new detail is simply unfair to the Grizzlies
Without considering the players the Grizzlies got in the trade, they received three first-round picks as a part of the deal. Those picks include a 2027 first-round pick via the Lakers (top-4 protected), the most favorable 2027 first-round pick between Utah/Cleveland/Minnesota, and a 2031 first-round pick via Phoenix. Kevin O'Connor of Yahoo Sports wrote about the new "3-2-1" lottery proposal and gave some clarity on additional details.
Two important things to know are that teams can't land first in two consecutive years and teams also can't land in the top five in three consecutive years. However, a key detail surrounding the acquired pick that's the best between Utah/Cleveland/Minnesota is extremely unfair to the Grizzlies. Kevin O'Connor had the following to say:
"But the Jazz traded that pick to the Memphis Grizzlies in February for Jaren Jackson Jr., which means Memphis won’t be able to receive it since streaks will be triggered by the original team, not the team holding the pick." - Kevin O'Connor
Before getting into more detail, how is that fair for the Grizzlies at all? For context, this applies in the case that the Jazz were to land in the top-5 for a third straight season. Even though the Jazz have a great chance to improve and potentially play playoff basketball, why should the Grizzlies potentially lose out on a pick that wasn't originally theirs? The Grizzlies did not have control of the Jazz picking 5th overall in 2025 and soon 2nd overall in this year's NBA Draft.
The pick should still convey to the Grizzlies if the Jazz have the improvement most NBA fans expect next season. But still, that specific scenario would be a cruel twist of bad luck for a Grizzlies team hoping to accelerate their rebuild. The Grizzlies will have their own pick to fall back on and potentially the 2027 pick via the Lakers, but it isn't ideal to potentially lose out on arguably their best asset from the Jackson Jr. deal.
There are more pressing matters for the Grizzlies right now, such as the 2026 NBA Draft and resolving Ja Morant's future. However, it could be a situation worth monitoring further depending on how next season plays out.
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