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Grizzlies suffer NBA Draft lottery nightmare fans had feared all along

This could potentially be a massive blow for the Grizzlies in the Jaren Jackson Jr. trade.
Utah Jazz forward, Jackson Jr.
Utah Jazz forward, Jackson Jr. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The NBA's Board of Governors passed a new set of anti-tanking rules in a 29-1 vote, with the only no vote being the Grizzlies. This is a disastrous outcome for the entire NBA, especially small-market teams, but for now the discussion will center around the Grizzlies and the Jaren Jackson Jr. trade. In short, Grizzlies' fans' worst nightmare surrounding the new lottery reform ended up coming true.

Basically, the NBA Draft lottery will expand from 14 to 16 teams, and there is a relegation zone for the bottom three teams that would weaken their odds at the #1 pick. Other important reforms to know are that teams cannot pick #1 overall in consecutive years, and teams also cannot pick top-five in three consecutive seasons.

The Grizzlies were obviously right to vote no

One of the picks acquired in the Jaren Jackson Jr. deal is a 2027 first-round pick that is the best between Utah, Cleveland, and Minnesota. However, there is one major problem that could potentially end up costing the Grizzlies a top-five pick next season. Given that the Utah Jazz picked 5th overall in the 2025 NBA Draft to select Ace Bailey and will now pick #2 overall this year, the Grizzlies would not be rewarded a top-5 pick even if Utah lands that high.

Truthfully, Utah is due for a significant improvement next season and has a strong chance to make next year's NBA playoffs. Unfortunately, in the off chance they do not live up to expectations, it would not be fair for the Grizzlies to miss out on a top five pick after multiple years of Utah tanking. They simply shouldn't be punished for a pick that was not originally theirs.

One of the key failures of the new draft lottery reforms is that it would punish the Grizzlies despite the Jaren Jackson Jr. deal being made under an old draft lottery ruleset. Even though it is more likely Utah makes the playoffs and lands in the 20s anyway, the Grizzlies could end up being big losers of the Jaren Jackson Jr. trade if Utah misses the playoffs.

The Grizzlies still have one silver lining

Despite today's awful news surrounding that specific pick, the Grizzlies still possess their own first-round pick and also got another 2027 first-round pick in the Jaren Jackson Jr. trade that is top-4 protected (via Lakers). Next year's draft class is not projected to be as good as the 2026 NBA Draft, but it can't be ruled out that the Grizzlies still get some good lottery luck for a second straight year.

The Grizzlies have a great set of picks in this year's draft, and the same could potentially be said for next year's draft. Unfortunately, that does not change the fact that the Grizzlies got punished for something out of their control. There have been some rumblings that if the pick lands in the top 5 via Utah, it would fall to #6 or allow for another draw for the top 5; however, that possibility still weakens the Grizzlies' haul for Jaren Jackson Jr.

There is still a lot for Grizzlies fans to be excited about early in their rebuild. But for now, they could potentially suffer a major loss in the 2027 NBA Draft lottery with the new reforms.

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